How Iowa and New Hampshire show Trump’s weaknesses among the general electorate

With his double wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, Donald Trump is projected as a near-certain winner of the nomination as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate for the November election. But, at the same time, the manner in which it has been imposed is an omen of its problems in the general elections.

It has been said and shown that both the states in which the party primary process begins are not representative of the general American society, and therefore, of No further conclusions can be drawn as to how the candidate will fare in the November elections..

In fact, it is very unusual that the winner of Iowa is also the winner of New Hampshire. This is expected only when the candidate is a sitting President. Trump created history by winning both the states this year. But the scope of those victories must be contextual.

First, it must be considered that presidential primaries usually gather the most militant parties. In the case of Iowa, it is a traditionally conservative state unlike New Hampshire, which has many liberals and independents.

Exit polls conducted during the New Hampshire primary offer some clues that the Trump campaign should consider heading into November’s presidential election and show his vulnerabilities for his rematch against Joe Biden.

For example, a third of Republican participants in the New Hampshire primary believe the former president did something illegal related to lawsuits brought against him by the Justice Department and the state of Georgia, according to exit polls. Associated Press.

According to the same survey, About half of Republican voters worry that Trump is too extreme to win the general electionThe belief that the former president’s radical message generates more disapproval than support among more centrist voters.

In Iowa, however, a majority of Republicans said in a poll by NBC and Des Moines Registry While only 23% of those who supported Haley in state caucuses would vote for Trump if he won the nomination, 44% said they would vote for Biden.

And therein lies one of Trump’s greatest weaknesses, that while his hardline rhetoric excites and mobilizes his electoral base, it creates problems for him when it comes to appealing to moderate voters, whether independents, conservative Democrats or Be a Republican.

” 35% of state Republicans are not going to vote for Donald Trump. He is bleeding from the center. He needs Haley’s votes, and right now many of those Republicans say they won’t vote for him. And that’s a warning sign,” analyst Mark Thiessen said on Fox News at the end of the New Hampshire primary.

Trump’s Republican critics openly fear that he will have trouble winning in November and that he will be responsible for party candidates in other elections, as they believe has happened in every national election since Trump first entered the White House in 2016.

Trump faces 91 criminal charges In various proceedings he has opened up about his alleged attempt to interfere with vote counting in the 2020 presidential election, his role in what happened at the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, and classified documents found in his home after leaving Florida. The White House.

New Hampshire polls determined that Trump’s base believed this was political persecution and believed he would be fit to be president if convicted. On the other hand, 83% of those who support Haley believe she would be unfit for office.

Attracting moderates, finding centrists and independents is key to any campaign strategy. Poles, although they may be more significant because they are the most active and dominate the scene, are not enough to impose an electoral agenda.

In 2016, Trump split independent voters evenly with Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a Pew Center study. On that occasion, the tycoon of the day lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College delegate count and, with them, the presidency.

In 2020, Biden won 54% of independents, compared to Trump’s 41%, according to Pew. That year, Trump’s defeat was explained by Biden’s good performance in moderate areas, mainly in suburban areas, and, in particular, among women.