China is suffering from a second consecutive year of decline in its population

In China, the declining population trend is confirmed after official figures for the year 2023 were published on Wednesday 17 January.

“At the end of 2023, the national population was 1.40967 billion people” either “A decrease of 2.08 million compared to the end of 2022”, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced. This figure only includes people living in mainland China. It does not include residents of the semi-autonomous Chinese territories of Hong Kong and Macau, or Taiwan (an island of 23 million inhabitants claimed by Beijing).

Last year’s decline was double that of 2022, when the country lost 850,000 people and saw its population decline for the first time since the 1960s. During 2023, China has also lost its title. “Most Populous Country in the World” According to the UN, for the benefit of India.

Deaths more than doubled in 2023, and births declined for the seventh year in a row. About 9 million babies will be born in 2023 – compared to 9.5 million in 2022 – half the 2016 total.

Efforts to prevent decline

The demographic decline can be explained by several reasons, including the high cost of education, a lack of confidence in the economic future and a growing distrust of the institution of marriage – a necessary step in China before having children. Increasing numbers of women with higher education are also delaying the age of first pregnancy.

The Chinese government is trying to limit the decline through family allowances, which remain modest, in favor of abundant birthrates or, from 2021, allowing all couples to have three children.

China, which once sought to control population growth through its one-child policy, now faces the opposite problem. The population continues to age, which could slow economic growth and challenge the country’s ability to support a large aging population with fewer workers.

Loads of tradition

Another problem is social. According to tradition, caring for elderly parents is important in China, even more so than in Western societies. But most couples in China today are made up of two adults with only children, so they have a lot to do to take care of their four elderly parents. A burden that becomes too important.

To try to compensate for this phenomenon, China presented this week a major senior plan, which could amount to tens of billions of euros to deal with the growing need for services in the sector (retirement homes, entertainment, home care or even food delivery). ).

Furthermore, what about the use of immigration as a solution to demographic decline? “It’s not practical,” because, “In the coming decades, China’s population will decline by a hundred million people”, estimates independent demographer Hay Yafu to Agence France-Presse. This means that we have to bring “millions of people”Gold “Most Chinese today oppose immigration and the authorities are very restrictive on the matter”It emphasizes.

According to him, “It is fundamentally impossible to reverse China’s declining population trend,” Because the younger generation “Not many are willing to have children in general anymore.”