+ 77%, this is an increase in the number of new cancer cases by 2050, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). 35 million cases should be detected in a quarter of a century. Worrying predictions. There are several factors that could explain this increase.
According to the latest figures from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the expert arm of the World Health Organization (WHO), there are expected to be more than 35 million cases of cancer in 2050, up from the estimated 20 million. In 2022.
This increase reflects both the aging and growth of the population, as well as the evolution of individuals’ exposure to risk factors. Tobacco, alcohol and obesity are major factors, as is air pollution.
According to IARC, ten types of cancer will account for nearly two-thirds of new cases and deaths worldwide in 2022.
- Lung cancer is the most common form of cancer worldwide, with 2.5 million new cases. It accounts for more than 12% of all new cases and 18.9% of deaths, or 1.8 million, making it the leading cause of cancer death.
- Breast cancer in women comes second with 2.3 million cases or 11.6% worldwide, but is the cause of 6.9% of deaths.
Other most common cancers are colorectal cancer, prostate cancer and stomach cancer.
- Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death, followed by liver, breast and stomach cancer.
- Cervical cancer was the eighth most common cancer worldwide, the ninth leading cause of cancer death, and the most common cancer in women in 25 countries, many of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
The WHO also published a survey of 115 countries showing that most of them do not adequately finance cancer and palliative care services, highlighting the urgency of tackling these disparities.
According to WHO, relative to population, it is the countries with the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) and therefore the poorest, which will experience the greatest increase (142 %) and the highest mortality rate by 2050.
The Asian continent accounts for the largest number of cancer deaths (56% of the total – here tobacco is the leading cause of premature death), followed by Europe (20%) followed by Latin America, Africa and North America.
If pollution is an important factor in increasing the risks that threaten human health and can be one of the generators of cancer, this cannot explain everything.
We must first consider the improvement of diagnosis. In fact, cancers that were previously undiagnosed but very real are now being diagnosed, increasing the number of cancers that are automatically identified.
Then, the demographic evolution of the world’s population suggests at the same time that health conditions will affect large numbers of people.
At the same time, this larger population with increasing life expectancy also means more pronounced aging. Scientists say: “Cancer is a problem of the immune system, and the older we get, the more the immune system declines. The result: the longer the population lives, the more susceptible it is to cancer.”
In rich countries, one in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer during their lifetime and one in 71 will die from it, according to the IARC. By contrast, in poorer countries, only one in 27 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer, but one in 48 will die from it.
Deputy Head of Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC Dr. According to Isabel Sorjomataram: These women “are at increased risk of dying from the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment”.
The WHO survey also revealed significant disparities in cancer services globally. For example, high-income countries were seven times more likely to include lung cancer services in their health benefits.
For scientists, the alarm bells that this study rings in humanity’s ears call for an ecological crisis.
therefore, for Xavier Briffault, researcher in social science and philosophy of health at CNRS, sees an ecological trigger: showing a direct link between health and environmental degradation, science will move us from a moral ecology to a health public ecology.
Especially since health is not only the goal of the ecological fight, but also a tool, the researcher adds : By consolidating our fears, the issue of health allows us to pressure politicians with the argument, “You’re not only killing the planet but you’re killing us”.
Thus “pollution is bad” will be used. : We will understand that pollution, “Heartache.”
