As a Trump-Biden rematch seems inevitable, here’s what could prevent it

Angela Weiss, Mandel NGN / AFP

As of November 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump should face each other again during the 2024 presidential election.

United States – There will be a duel. After their overwhelming victory on Super Tuesday and the abandonment of Nikki Haley a few hours later, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are set to face each other again in the November presidential election in the United States.

As the journalist explains New York Times Shane Goldmaker, this is the first time in nearly 70 years that two general election candidates have faced each other in two consecutive presidential elections. In 1952 and then in 1956, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower faced Democrat Adlai Stevenson. He won both times. Joe Biden would certainly want history to repeat itself.

If a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden seems inevitable today, the presidential election is still eight months away. HuffPost Below are some hypotheses that may prevent this conflict from occurring.

• Joe Biden

As the outgoing president knows this well, he is not the candidate the Democrats would have wanted. Too old (81 years), too stupid, too reckless… But when he planned to hand over his vice-presidentship to Kamala Harris in 2024, the latter’s aura did not go beyond the walls of the White House. So Joe Biden decided to come back by presenting himself as the only personality in the party who could defeat Donald Trump.

However, a few weeks ago, the politico-media sector began imagining the 80-year-old abandoning himself. Three possibilities emerge: if a better alternative becomes available to the party, in case of inability to exercise its functions due to health reasons or in the event of death during the election process.

The first option seems quite unlikely, given the inability of other potential candidates to win (and the president’s ego). Names like California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are mentioned regularly, but it’s hard to imagine their success between now and the party convention in August.

The other two options, however, are more realistic, and there, the Democratic Party would be declared a state of emergency. A presidential incapacity would push Kamala Harris into the Oval Office, as the Constitution requires, but the vice president would not automatically be designated as the presidential nominee.

Then it is necessary to understand the process of nominating a candidate for general elections. During primaries, voters actually vote for delegates “tied” to a candidate. It is they who participate in the party convention, where the presidential candidate is definitively chosen.

If the president drops out before the convention, the delegates pledged to Joe Biden will be forced to vote for another candidate of their choice. This situation will promise a battle for influence. If deadlock occurs after this convention, it will be up to the national party authorities to decide on the transfer after consultation with governors, elected representatives of the Congress and other important members of the party.

• Donald Trump

With revenge after his defeat in 2020 and his complete control of the Republican Party, it is impossible to imagine a voluntary withdrawal of Donald Trump because his thirst for revenge is so great. But as for Biden, the 77-year-old billionaire is not immune to health issues. If you are unable to run, the Republican Party rules are essentially the same as the Democratic Party rules as summarized above.

What about conviction? As required by the Constitution, one must be born in the United States, have lived there for 14 years, and be at least 35 years old to become president. A prison sentence may have an effect on his voters who will turn away from him, but it will not stop Donald Trump from running for office in any case. The Supreme Court also issued a decision a few days ago, ruling that the real estate mogul cannot be disqualified from the primaries. In the past, one man even campaigned behind bars: Eugene Victor Debs, in the 1920s. This shows that anything is possible.

In fact, only the emergence of a third personality could shake up the Trump-Biden duel at least a little. In 2024, for example, conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (nephew of John F. Kennedy), as an independent, as well as ecologist Jill Stein for the Green Party. For the moment, neither of these candidacies overshadows the other two.

Or do we have to rely on a personality that has not yet revealed itself? The No Labels movement has been trying for months to influence the election to field a viable candidate against Donald Trump and Joe Biden. A failure so far.

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