For nearly a month, Houthi rebels have stepped up their attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea. The result: maritime traffic has dropped by 22%, the European Union announced. If the situation does not improve, the economic impact could be greater than it is now.
As a reminder, “e12 to 15% of global traffic uses this seaway as well as 30 to 35% of container ships. », suggests Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Trade. With the prevailing insecurity in the Red Sea, more and more commercial ships are opting for the longer route via South Africa. A choice that obviously affects transport prices that are rising. According to the container xChange logistics platform, the additional cost in terms of fuel is estimated to be more than 20%. The same source predicts an increase in sea transport costs of 60% with an additional premium of around 20% for shipowners’ insurance.
If insecurity persists, towards an overall rise in prices?
So an increase in transport costs can lead to an overall increase in prices. ” The broader economic impact on consumer prices depends greatly on the duration of this crisis », Valdis Dombrovskis estimate. For his part, the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, indicated that ” What is happening in the Red Sea, for the moment, appears to have no consequences for energy prices and inflation. But we think this needs to be monitored very closely, as these results may materialize in the coming weeks. “
In February, the European Commission should revise its economic forecast with this new key dimension which is insecurity in the Red Sea, Valdis Dombrovskis suggests. Among the decisions that may be taken, the establishment of defenses for European ships crossing the Red Sea. For its part, China has tightened its tone. ” We call for an end to harassment of civilian vessels and for the smooth maintenance of global supply chains and the preservation of the international trading system. “, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said during a speech on Friday.
Mohammed al-Bukhait, a member of the Houthi political leadership, explained that China and Russia are not targets for the Houthi rebels, ” We are also ready to ensure the safe passage of their ships through the Red Sea “, he assured during an exchange with the Russian daily Izvestia on Friday.
