In Iowa, the Republican primaries open in very cold weather and under the dominance of Donald Trump

In the United States, when a historic election cycle begins with a weather report, we think it will be something out of the ordinary. A subzero temperature of −29 °C during the night of January 15–16 will plunge Iowa, also home to the caucuses, the first stage of the Republican primary. A thick white down blanketed the Midwestern state, whipped by a breathtakingly cold wind. There are lines of stranded cars on some major roads. Winters are often cold in these regions. But who would be motivated enough to step outside, take your car, and drive to one of these unparalleled public meetings in hundreds of gymnasiums, schools, and libraries, where Republican activists will debate the early evening before the polls?

This turnout represents a major unknown in the election, which was promised to Donald Trump by all experts. “It will be strong”, Assures state Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufman. In 2016, about 186,000 people registered. Iowa activists appreciate their ceremonial role in the primaries, the honor of opening the race, even if their choice doesn’t determine what happens next. 1,215 delegates must be gathered at the Milwaukee convention in July to secure the Republican nomination. Iowa offers only 40. But this figure does not say anything about the actual influence of this state. It is a test of credibility and stamina for the candidates and their organizational capabilities on the ground.

In a final reference survey published on January 13 by local media Des Moines Register and NBC News, Donald Trump at 48%, Nikki Haley at 20% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 16%. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy seems to be lagging behind at 8%. However, these last three candidates held a number of meetings till the last minute. Nobody knows who will play in the cold on Monday. Who – Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis – has the best field organization with the most relays in the entire country? Nikki Haley, whose voters are mainly concentrated in the big cities and their outskirts, where the roads are better cleaned? Another uncertainty concerns the number of new voters, which have not yet been registered.

Ron DeSantis is betting everything on Iowa

Thanks to the evangelical vote, Iowa regularly reserves pleasant surprises like Senators Rick Santorum (2012) and Ted Cruz (2016), both unexpected winners of the caucuses. His star did not shine for long. Primary is a course of obstruction by elimination. On January 10, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie withdrew before the first hurdle. Uncertainty in Iowa concerns the gap between the top three and the order of finish. Before the New Hampshire stage on January 23, who, Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, will be happier with second place and a symbol of momentum behind Donald Trump?

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