You rightly point out that Joe Biden and Donald Trump seem headed for a new duel, without incident. Elections are collapsing under their weight. It is a real industry, which generates a very substantial income. In recent days, several polls have painted a worrisome picture for Joe Biden, giving Trump a nearly two-point lead.
But I urge extreme caution in their assessment. First, other studies show Joe Biden slightly ahead. Then, the credibility of the poll changes. Some of the selected samples and questions asked lack rigor. Others, especially in the conservative camp, look like pure political mandates, with hypothetical consequences. But, above all, it is too early! We are eight months away from the presidential election. Americans have not yet entered this political cycle. Their appetite is low because the vast and undisputed majority do not want a new Biden/Trump duel! We are going to witness a long, handicap race.
Another reason to be cautious about voting is recent experience. During the mid-term elections in November 2022, we were told that a red tide is sweeping over Congress. This was the wave in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans managed to win a narrow majority. But the Democrats have strengthened their dominance in the Senate.
The entire calculation of the Biden camp is based on this experience. What were the two main drivers of the democratic movement during this 2022 election event? Democracy is under threat as extremist MAGA (Make America Great Again) candidates invest in certain states; But above all, the Supreme Court’s decision, in June 2022, to remove abortion as a right for all American women, sent the question back to the states. Since then, in every local election or referendum, Republicans have been crushed on abortion, provoking a massive mobilization among women and young people, two groups that Joe Biden will need dearly in November. In conclusion, be careful at this stage! Above all, we should keep an eye on the dynamics and strategies followed rather than statistics.
