Three months later, Israel enters a new phase of the war. Are you still trying to “destroy” Hamas?

(CNN) — Three months ago, in an address to citizens shaken by a horrific day of Hamas attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a promise.

“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will immediately use all its strength to destroy Hamas’ capabilities,” Netanyahu said. “We will destroy them.”

Now, the IDF is moving into a new phase of its war against Hamas in Gaza, and there are signs that its objectives are also changing.

Bilal Y., Middle East and North Africa Research Associate at Chatham House. “This record does not bode well for a military campaign seeking to eradicate a deeply entrenched military political movement,” Saab told CNN.

“The IDF leadership understands very well that the most they can do is seriously degrade Hamas’ military capabilities,” Saab declared.

Israel has had some successes in that regard: its forces have claimed to have killed thousands of Hamas fighters, including some high-ranking members, and have dismantled parts of the group’s vast network of tunnels under the enclave.

But challenges remain and the end game is far from in sight. Some countries set a time limit for war. Israeli authorities have warned of a protracted war that could extend to 2024 and beyond.

The extraordinary humanitarian crisis and mounting civilian deaths in Gaza will expose the conflict to an increasingly alarmed international community.

And as international pressure mounts, domestic uneasiness may grow toward Netanyahu, a prime minister eager to point to tangible victories.

“There is a race against time,” Saab said, outlining the key issues facing Israel’s leadership. “At what cost is this strategic breakthrough going to come, and how long do the Israelis have to achieve that strategic breakthrough without incurring more significant international outrage?”

A view of Khan Yunis, southern Gaza, during an Israeli bombardment on Friday, January 6, 2024.
(Credit: AFP/Getty Images)

“A New Approach to Combat”

The destruction of Hamas, the objective Netanyahu announced on October 7, was an idealistic, elusive and, according to many analysts, impossible goal.

“This type of mission cannot be accomplished: we have seen it fail many times over the years,” Saab said.

Hamas’s influence extends beyond Gaza, meaning that the group’s total defeat, if it can be achieved, is, at least, too ambitious for Israel.

But it is not clear whether IDF leaders place that goal high among their priorities. The IDF’s intelligence chief, Major General Aharon Haliva, ignored the destruction of Hamas while listing military targets in a speech on Thursday, Israeli media reported.

And later on Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant unveiled plans for the next phase of the war in Gaza, emphasizing a new combat approach in the north and targeting suspected Hamas leaders.

In the third phase, IDF operations in northern Gaza will include “bombing, destruction of terrorist tunnels, air and ground activities, and special operations.”

“This phase will be less intense, but it will take longer,” Yohanan Plessner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute and a former Knesset (Israeli parliament) member for the Kadima party, told CNN.

If the most realistic goal is a sharp reduction in Hamas’ combat capability, many analysts say tangible progress has been made in the past three months.

“The definition of success is not to capture or kill all Hamas operatives, but to ensure that Hamas can no longer effectively rule Gaza,” Plessner said. “Hamas is organized like an army, with command and control centers, regiments and brigades. This command structure is being seriously challenged and dismantled.”

Speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said last week that the Israeli military was “fighting with strength and new systems above and below the ground” and claimed they had killed 8,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza, according to Army Radio.

CNN could not verify this figure. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says nearly 23,000 people have died in the territory since the war began. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants, but both the Gaza ministry and its counterpart in the occupied West Bank indicate that approximately 70% of those killed or injured are women and children.

Israel believes Hamas had about 30,000 fighters in Gaza before the war began on October 7, the Israel Defense Forces told CNN in December. The fighters were divided into five brigades, 24 battalions and about 140 companies, the IDF told CNN, each with capabilities including anti-tank missiles, snipers and engineers, and rocket and mortar batteries.

Hunt for Hamas Leaders

Israel has also claimed some success in attacking Hamas tunnel shafts, which are difficult for IDF troops to penetrate. The IDF released a video this week saying it had demolished a tunnel passageway under Gaza’s largest medical complex, Al-Shifa Hospital, which it accused Hamas of digging.

Last month, it released another video it said showed a network of tunnels connecting the residences and offices of senior Hamas leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif.

But Israel has so far failed to achieve its goal of finding and killing the most senior Hamas leaders in Gaza.

“This is where intelligence is king,” Saab said. Gallant and other officials have repeatedly emphasized the importance of their efforts to remove senior Hamas leaders. The defense minister promised in late December that Sinwar “will soon meet the barrels of our guns.”

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is a prime target of the IDF. (Credit: Mahmoud Hames/AFP/Getty Images/File)

A longtime figure in the Palestinian Islamist group, Sinwar was responsible for building the military wing of Hamas before forging important new ties with regional Arab powers as the group’s civilian and political leader.

“Organizations like this change commanders easily. I don’t think anyone is irreplaceable in Hamas,” Saab said. “But if you remove the symbolic heads of the organization, who knows if that might have a trickle-down effect, especially on people who have military responsibilities.”

A new phase of Israel’s war is unlikely to bring relief to Palestinians trapped in Gaza, where the humanitarian crisis has reached unprecedented levels.

But Netanyahu is likely to bow to domestic pressure, which is particularly mounting over the ongoing capture of more than 100 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7.

Israel believes 25 hostages have been killed and their bodies are in Gaza, Netanyahu’s office told CNN on Friday. 107 hostages from last year’s Hamas attack are believed to be still alive.

The return of those hostages is a goal in the new phase of the war, and failure to achieve it will intensify political pressure on a decisive leader whose popularity among Israelis has plummeted since October 7.

“From day one there was a clear disparity: There is support for the war goals and the IDF, (but) trust in the Israeli government is at a historic low,” Plessner said. “There’s a huge chasm.”