With Chega, the far-right hopes to double the score achieved two years ago

International – Just two years after the last general election, he could – if the latest polls are correct – double his score this Sunday 10 March. Credited with around 17% of voting intentions, the far-right Chega Party, led by André Ventura, hopes to establish itself permanently in Portuguese political life.

The far right had already won in 2022 with 7.2% of the vote and 12 parliamentary seats. Created in 2019, Chega (“That’s enough”) has all the characteristics of a popular party, starting with the fact that it is “hyper-personal” Director of the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon (ICS), political scientist Marina Costa Lobo pointed out to AFP, from the media environment around its leader.

A convenient reference

The anti-system was created by Andre Ventura, a 41-year-old former football commentator known for his xenophobic remarks, and “collects a series of discontents long present in Portuguese society”. By speaking out against corruption and minorities, the expert notes.

Thus the reference to these assembly elections comes at an opportune time for Chega. The outgoing prime minister, Socialist Antonio Costa, triggered the elections by resigning in late November against the backdrop of a massive corruption scandal in which his name was cited.

Surveys note, more broadly, “ Dissatisfaction » Towards the Socialists, despite its good results in terms of public finances, growth or employment, Marina Costa underlines Lobo. “This positive macroeconomic context is not reflected in the quality of life of the Portuguese because of inflation, low wages or problems in the functioning of the state. »

Connection with the right?

As a result, the question of Chega’s far-right support for allowing the conservatives to run the country will likely arise on the day after the election. If the result looks particularly open due to the large number of undecided voters, recent polls credit centre-right leader Luis Montenegro with around 33% voting intention, ahead of the outgoing Socialists (28%). Insufficient score for majority in Parliament – ​​if confirmed.

During the campaign, Luis Montenegro firmly rejected the formation of an executive with the support of the far right. But some observers believe a section of his party may push for an alliance with Chega to return to power. Populist leader Andre Ventura has shown himself open to such an option. “We cannot let PS rule if there is a right-wing majority”

“curve”

Whether or not the extreme right participates in the executive, “This election is very important”, notes political scientist Marina Costa Lobo. “It could mark a turning point towards a certain convergence of Portugal with the panorama of parties in Europe. »

With Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Viktor Orbán in Hungary at the head of government, the far right participates in government in Slovakia and Finland and supports the executive without participating in Sweden. Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders won a general election last November, but has so far failed to form a governing coalition.

And in many other countries, the first or second party nationally is on the extreme right of the political spectrum, such as France and Poland – where the PIS remains the country’s first formation despite the victory of liberal Donald Tusk. End of 2023 -, Austria or even Germany.

If Chega is not there yet, the result should in any case be a tipping point in a country marked by the Salazar dictatorship – which fell exactly 50 years ago during the Carnation Revolution. “ Until 2019, Portugal was described as a kind of safe haven free from populism, but it was clearly only a matter of time before we saw its arrival.notes José Santana Pereira, professor of political science at the Lisbon University Institute ISCTE.

“The ground was ready”Underlines a political scientist for AFP, “ What was missing was someone capable of presenting a credible political project, and that person was Andre Ventura.

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