Why the microstate of Nauru is abandoning Taiwan in favor of Beijing

While most countries congratulate the winners of presidential elections, the tiny island nation of Nauru chose to deviate from diplomatic courtesy on Monday, January 15, by notifying Taiwan that it would no longer recognize the island as an independent nation.

The roughly 12,000 residents of this lost island in the Pacific now consider Taiwan “an inalienable part of Chinese territory,” two days after the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) landslide victory in presidential elections that embodied Taiwan’s path to autonomy. Against China.

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With Nauru’s change of allegiance, Taiwan is now recognized as China’s state and sole legitimate representative on the international stage by 12 countries around the world, a motley collection of Latin American, Caribbean and peaceful nations.

Neither Beijing nor Taipei allows the two countries to recognize the two states, which are either mainland China or Taiwan, and since 2016 the People’s Republic of China has poached nine of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies by promising financial aid. Nauru is the 10th state to change allegiance.

Beijing reaches into its wallet

To explain this defection, Steve Tsang of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS, China Institute, in London) points to Taiwan’s reluctance to reach into its pockets to convince its last diplomatic allies to stay with it.

“We have to bear in mind that Nauru is a country of just under 13,000 inhabitants. The chances of economic development aid persuading it to move from recognition by Taipei to Beijing may be very modest,” he explains.

In other words, Taiwan could extend itself to secure Nauru’s recognition, but Taiwanese authorities decided to maintain the Chinese government’s “checkbook diplomacy” on the diplomatic scene. Over the years, Taipei has admitted to losing some of its “allies” to Beijing when the latter is determined enough to outbid.

This development took place under the leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen during his two terms as head of Taiwan (2016-2024). On Tuesday, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, accused the micro-state of falling for the lure of “significant Chinese financial aid”. Already in 2019, when two other small Pacific states, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, also declared themselves in favor of China, Taiwanese media claimed that financial aid of about $500 million convinced the Solomon Islands to leave Taipei.

Between 2008 and 2021, Beijing is said to have spent $3.9 billion in aid in the region, compared to $395 million for Taiwan over the same period. For Oceania region expert Asha Sundarmurthy, China’s charm offensive is a success. “Today, only three Pacific islands recognize Taiwan: the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau.”

Since 2006, Taiwan has supported Nauru through technical missions in the agricultural or energy sectors, the provision of scholarships and training, and loans at below market rates. To help replace disappearing phosphate revenues after decades of overexploitation, Taiwan also contributes to an “intergenerational” fund created in 2015 along with Australia and New Zealand so micro-states can keep their heads above water.

The tragic fate of Nauru, a failed state

For its part, Nauru has never stopped selling diplomatic recognition to the highest bidder. After 22 years of relations with Taiwan, Nauru first courted China in 2002. Before falling back with Taipei in 2005, when the Taiwanese government loaned Nauru the purchase of a Boeing 737, replacing the country’s sole aircraft, which had been impounded. An American bank.

After the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, Nauru also became one of the only countries in the world to officially recognize the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant, the Kremlin rewarded the island nation with nearly $50 million in humanitarian aid for its support.

By adopting this pragmatic approach to international relations, Nauru is gambling on its survival. With only 21 square kilometres, Nauru experienced prosperity in the early 20th century, thanks to the discovery of significant deposits of phosphates, which were created over centuries by the fossilization of seabird droppings.

For the British Empire, which seized Nauru from the Germans after World War I, these phosphate reserves were a strategic fertilizer resource for agriculture. Under the direction of the British Phosphate Commission, more than 35 million tonnes were extracted from the island before the country gained independence in 1968.

In the 1990s, depletion of mineral reserves and poor management of public finances led to a social, environmental and economic disaster. Surface mining has destroyed the island’s central plateau. Now covered in sun-bleached limestone towers and jagged coral, the country is bankrupt.

Deprived of agricultural land, Nauru is frantically searching for new sources of income. During the 2000s, the government became heavily dependent on Australia, which provided funding for an offshore detention center for asylum seekers hoping to reach its territory by boat. According to the US-based Migration Policy Institute, two-thirds of the island’s total income in 2021-2022 is dependent on the agreement.

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however, Currently the number of detainees there is down to about a dozen, and it is likely that Australia will soon end the system.

Maintain the status quo

With few resources other than the sale of fishing rights in its territorial waters, fearing a climate crisis due to its low altitude, Nauru seized the opportunity of a presidential election in Taiwan to remonetize its diplomatic support for one of the two Chinas.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Taiwanese diplomat told Taiwan’s semi-official CNA news agency that Nauru had asked Taipei for $83.23 million in aid to cover the financial gap caused by the center’s temporary closure. Detention administered by Australia.

Information confirmed by an Australian official in the Australian Financial Review that Beijing may have offered to intervene to plug the deficit. Neither Nauru nor China have publicly commented on the claims.

For political scientist and historian Steve Tsang, the timing of Nauru’s announcement, two days after the DPP won a new mandate, is no coincidence. “The timeline suggests that Beijing was in cahoots with the Nauru government well before the Taiwanese elections. Their rally is an option to ‘punish’ Taiwan and its people for electing a candidate Beijing doesn’t like. Thus Beijing is really telling Taiwan. was able to express his displeasure without causing harm.

For Taipei, losing the friendship of a small, indebted island nation ultimately means little. For the Hong Kong-born academic, Taipei’s growing diplomatic isolation may have unexpected benefits as Taiwan continues to redefine its identity.

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“When a country no longer officially recognizes Taiwan by its official name of the Republic of China, it will simply be called Taiwan,” he predicted. “There will therefore come a time when it will be against Beijing’s interests to further reduce the number of small states that recognize Taiwan by its official name”. may declare its independence.A scenario that creates a red line for Beijing.

This article was adapted from the English original by David Gormezano which can be found here.