Why is there no end to this conflict even after two years of war in Ukraine?

Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fighting continues and peace still seems far away. However, when Vladimir Putin launched a “special military operation” in his neighborhood on February 24, 2022, he promised a blitzkrieg and the capture of Kiev within days. But the Russian army came up against the Ukrainian defense and the unity of its Western allies.

If Kiev’s supporters have provided tens of billions of euros in aid, they are now divided over the continuation of aid to be sent. Russia, by contrast, claims to have absorbed the shock of economic sanctions and Wants to strengthen his army. The Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in the summer of 2023 did not have the expected effects and is the front line. Almost stable.

“If this continues, the state of Ukraine may suffer an irreparable blow”Vladimir Putin rejoiced at the end of January. Is this ongoing war exceptional? Why does peace seem impossible? Franceinfo interviewed some experts.

The generality of wars that go on

On the morning of February 24, 2022, when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, he was convinced that he could take Kiev within days. The Russian army bombards the suburbs of the capital. Frightened, citizens rush to the stations to reach the west and cross the border. In the West, most observers believed that these images were from the 20th century. “We thought that wars (21st century) New advanced technologies will be carried out with autonomous weapon systems. that they will take place in space and cyberspace”War historian Margaret McMillan notes in American Magazine foreign affairs.

“The people of the West realized that traditional warfare between states could return to the European continent”., explains Tim Sweeze, director of research at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague (Netherlands). Although Europe experienced the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s, it is the first time a state’s territorial integrity has been violated on the continent since the end of World War II.

On the front, the Ukrainian military is stepping up its attacks to slow the Russian advance. Thanks to the military assistance provided by his allies, he managed to force the Russian army to retreat to the east.

“The success of a blitzkrieg depends on various factors such as the resistance of the adversary, international support and the ability to consolidate regional advantages.”

Tim Sweeze, research director at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague

at franceinfo

The conflict turns into a war of positions. Fighting is concentrated in the towns of Baucha, Zaporizhia and Mariupol. “The situation worsened and the war turned into a war of attrition,” Tim Swayze continues, making it clear that it is a state “Far from exceptional” In contemporary history. In the 20th century, many wars in Europe as elsewhere promised to end in a short period of time. In the summer of 1914, European countries went to war promising troops to stay home for Christmas, but the war lasted four years.. In 1980, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, believing that the Islamic Revolution of 1979 had weakened him and that confrontation would take place quickly. The war lasted more than seven years, costing more than a million lives.

Hard to win total

For researchers interviewed by franceinfo, wars go on because total victory is nearly impossible. “During the world wars of the 20th century, states followed a doctrine that the only outcome could be the total surrender of their adversaries”recalls Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, Professor of War Studies at Loughborough University (United Kingdom). “In World War II, the Allies wanted to destroy Nazi Germany and Fascist Japan.”

But the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 changed the conflict. “In an age where absolute victory was unthinkable, because it was too dangerous.” later, “Wars between states have become less frequent” And conflicts took other forms, such as wars of independence between states and their colonial power. After September 11, “Western states have launched a war on terror with asymmetric adversaries and little chance of victory”, Caroline Kennedy-Pipe believes. The United States-led war on terrorism in Afghanistan (2001–2021) lasted twenty years and ended with the return of the Taliban to power.

“Western countries waging wars in the 21st century limit human and material costs. That’s why we find the war of attrition in Ukraine appalling.”

Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, war studies researcher

at franceinfo

In his studies (in PDF) How Wars End: Russia-Ukraine War Prospects, Tim Switze evaluated 63 interstate wars between 1946 and 2005. Only 21% of these conflicts ended with a result. “Wars that end in stalemate, without victory, but where the two sides continue to threaten each other, are far more likely to recur.”That explains. In 2008, The war between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, pro-Russian separatist regions, ended in five days with a ceasefire. But the Russian army still occupies 20% of Georgia.

There is no decisive battle

On the battlefield in Ukraine, the two armies still managed to face each other. “There were failures and successes on both sides. But there was no decisive battle that overthrew the opponent.”, Caroline Kennedy—continues to pipe. There was no equivalent “From the Battle of Waterloo”

, adds Tim Sweeze. In 1815, this brutal defeat of Napoleon against the Anglo-Prussian coalition led to the abdication of the French emperor and the end of the Napoleonic era.

“The war in Ukraine is an ‘old-fashioned’ war, characterized by fortification, siege tactics, where the artillery of both sides tried to overwhelm their opponents by sending rockets, missiles…”, Observes David Betz, professor of war studies at King’s College London. Initially, Russia had a military budget ten times that of Ukraine, with about one million active troops and two million reservists. “But the Ukrainians knew that Western weapons were difficult to use and how to defend themselves well, despite being poorly suited to the terrain.” Judge David Betz.

Kiev is now waiting to receive the F-16 jets and long-range missiles promised by its allies. because “Air superiority has always been essential in warfare over the last fifty years”Tim Sweez continues. In 1967, Israel won the Six-Day War thanks to its air force. “He who controls the sky will decide when and how the war ends.”Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleban warned in January.

“Without Western support, it’s over for Ukraine.”

David Betz, Professor of War Studies at King’s College London

at franceinfo

Each side believes it can still win. Vladimir Putin “Seeing Ukrainian forces exhausted, Western aid uncertain. He knows Donald Trump’s return to power in November will suit him”Tim Sweez continues. During his tenure, the former US president repeatedly threatened to leave NATO and reiterated his admiration for Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian president does not see There is no interest in stopping the fight. “He believes that the truce The fire will allow Vladimir Putin to rearm and it will only prolong the fighting.”, observes Tim Swayze. In addition, “Kiev deeply mistrusts Russia,” recalls Dan Reiter, a political science professor and author at Emory University in the United States. How wars end (2009). “The Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 between the two countries, in which Moscow pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, has never been honored.” He remembers. That did not stop Russia from annexing Crimea in 2014.

Peace to be maintained from time to time

All that remains is a referendum to change the course of history. “Its role is central, because war is a conflict of wills and public opinion determines or influences political will”, explains David Betz. In the 1960s, the Vietnam War sparked numerous peace protests in the United States and contributed to the withdrawal of American troops from the country. After two years of war, Ukraine is struggling to recruit new volunteers and mobilization is a hot topic. According to an American Gallup Institute poll published in October 2023, support for war is still high (60%), but lower than in 2022 (70%).

Also “In autocratic countries like Russia, opinion is not very important because all information about war is controlled”, recalls Tim Swayze. Internationally, Russia also remains unchecked. The Kremlin asserts that it was able to absorb Western sanctions and “Neither India nor China pressures Moscow, as Russia is an important trading partner”The researcher recalls.

“The longer the war lasts, the more likely Russia is to win.”

Dan Reiter, professor of political science

at franceinfo

Especially since, even if one of the two camps succeeds in winning the war, it will not necessarily lead to peace.

“Lit isPeacekeeping costs can be very high”, warns David Betz. LThe West would then need to provide a very significant amount of military aid to Ukraine to help deter any future Russian attacks. In 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein, “They have no reconstruction plan for the future” And the war lasted almost ten years, explains Caroline Kennedy-Pipe.

Bad: Peace treaties are sometimes the source of new wars. “The humiliation suffered by the Germans with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 led to a sense of revenge, which contributed to the outbreak of World War II,” Remembers Tim Swizz. In 1945, the UN was created for this purpose: to prevent the return of conflict and to maintain peace. But it has struggled to make its voice heard in the Ukraine war, blocked by a Russian veto in the Security Council. In early January, the organization announced that the war had taken its toll “catastrophic” And That was there “There’s no end in sight.”