Why can’t Europe produce enough ammunition for Kiev?

“Of the one million shells promised to us by the European Union, not 50% but unfortunately 30% were delivered,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday, February 26. As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Kiev is once again warning its European allies about repeated delays in the delivery of promised munitions. Twenty-seven committed to supply one million munitions (mainly 152 and 155 millimeter shells) before the end of March 2023 in the spring of 2023. By the own admission of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, this promise, which raised high hopes at the time of its announcement, today seems impossible to keep. In late January, diplomats admitted that only 52% of the ammunition would be delivered to Kiev.

The situation is forcing Ukrainian artillery to ration its fire, the White House reported in mid-February, while Moscow on the other side of the front line is subjecting its opponents to a veritable barrage of fire. According to Estonian Defense Ministry estimates, in the spring of 2022, the Russians fired up to 60,000 shells per day during the first phase of the war. This consumption rate declined, reaching between 10,000 and 15,000 shells per day in the second half of 2023. The figure is much higher than the 5 to 8,000 shells used by the Ukrainian side. In this high-intensity war, the Russian military can count on its industry, which has multiplied its means of production. According to the Ukrainian intelligence services quoted by Kiev post

Russia will drop nearly two million shells from its factories through 2023, while European industries struggle to keep up.

European industry is not equipped for war

Moscow is at the forefront of this industrial competition between Twenty-Seven and Russia. The European Union has a limited number of arms companies, which are not configured to supply armies engaged in high-intensity conflict. “For thirty years, European countries bought less than 20,000 shells per year”says Léo Peria-Paigne, an expert on arms issues at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “Before the beginning of the conflict, France produced 20,000 155 mm shells per year”, referring to Cédric Perrin, LR Senator from Territorie de Belfort and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee in the Senate. This annual production will only meet the needs of the Ukrainian army for a four-day combat period.

European industrial capabilities “In the late 1990s, the real needs of the military (…) were often reduced to being involved in asymmetric conflicts abroad” Emphasizes, characterized by a low ammunition consumption rate Gesin Weber, Researcher at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) think tank in Paris. “The industry was adapted to circumstances in which the requirements were far removed from those required in high-intensity warfare,” She continues. Consequently, European industries “were assimilated into artisanal establishments producing small numbers of products”According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIES).

Supply chains under stress

According to Gassin Weber, it takes time to awaken and transform a shrinking productive system. “European industry is not prepared to supply such large quantities of ammunition or heavy weapons in such a short period of time”, she notes. Some companies are managing to pick up the pace, such as German group Rheinmetall, the largest European manufacturer of artillery and tank ammunition, which announced in early February that it would build a new factory on its site. From Unterluss in Lower Saxony. The company aims to increase its production tenfold to reach the threshold of 700,000 shells produced. In France, in Bourges (Cher), the Nexter factory, a subsidiary of the Franco-German group KNDS, which produces Caesar cannons for the Ukrainian front, recruited and accelerated its production rate, from nine to six months to machine the tubes. .

This represents a titanic undertaking, in terms of transition “Machines, Qualified Personnel” But the amount of raw material. Certain essential materials that were abundant before the conflict become scarce. Multiplying demand from manufacturers quickly made it so “an obstacle”, explains Léo Péria-Peigné. The supply chain is not sized to meet such demand. “This is especially the case for powders, acids, explosives or potash”, said the chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee. Explosia, a major European supplier of explosives, has been operating at full capacity since the start of the Russian offensive. However, the Czech company does not plan to increase its production before 2026, the American daily clarifies Financial Times. This shortage limited European arms manufacturers and extended production times. “Factories are not operating at their full capacity”, explains the Ifri expert. some groups “Could work 100%, but (without raw material) They will not be able to supply the product.

Manufacturers are waiting for orders from the firm

Despite these obstacles, Europe has managed to increase its production rate by 20 to 30% in less than a year, according to Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner responsible for the internal market. Encouraging performance, but insufficient. “Delivery of Western Arms” Not enough in Kiev in 2024 “To keep pace with supplies (…) for the Russian Armed Forces”, Underline the analysts of the Estonian Ministry of Defense. European manufacturers will also be reluctant to open new production lines without long-term guarantees or visibility on contracts. “Before manufacturing and distributing, you need an order”Senator Cedric Perrin explains.

A question was asked in the Senate on November 8, 2023 on this subject, the General Representative for Armaments, Emmanuel Chiva, regretted the lack of initiative from some French industrialists. “The habit has fallen Not to move until they are awarded the contract.”. “When Nexter or MBDA tell me that they are not sure to sell their missiles, I tell them that unfortunately the reality is that there are opportunities. (…) It is possible to start investing,”

A senior French official confirmed. An increase in credits allocated to munitions under the Military Programming Act (LPM) will guarantee visibility to manufacturers. “With 16 billion munitions announced in LPM, I think manufacturers can stock up”DGA boss estimates.