While Ukraine claims war prizes from the Russian Air Force

Published on: 01/16/2024 – 5:34 pm

5 minutes

Missing just one A-50 and the entire Russian army finds itself in disarray? Ukraine was proud to have succeeded in downing an A-50 long-range radar detection plane over the Sea of ​​Azov on Monday 15 January. The success represented a major blow to the Russian military in general.

“We shot it down and it exploded during a fully managed and organized operation in the Azov region,” said Valery Zalozhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “Burn in hell, you bastards!” The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleschuk, took to Telegram to celebrate the “hero”.

For their part, the Russians have not confirmed this loss. “We have no information (on the subject),” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied simply on Monday.

Two planes collided

Some “milbloggers” – these Russian military critics, often belonging to ultra-nationalist movements, are very active on social networks – however, “have taken this information into their own hands”, notes Frank Ledwig, an expert on air war issues at the University of Portsmouth.

This destruction of the A-50 seems all the more believable because at the same time Kiev announced that it had shot down another plane – an IL-22, another aircraft serving as an airborne command center. “Subsequently, images of damaged aircraft were posted, suggesting that Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses had indeed hit important targets of the Russian Air Force,” summarized Sim Tech, a military analyst at Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.

The loss of the A-50 would be a “significant blow to the Russian military,” assures Jeff Hohn, an expert on Russian military issues and an external adviser to the New Lines Institute, an American geopolitical research center.

This aircraft represents the “spearhead of the Russian airborne defense system,” underlines Frank Ledwidge. This impressive aircraft, easily recognizable thanks to the large disc-shaped radar fixed atop the aircraft, allows the Russian aviation to have a “very advanced early detection and guidance system”, sums up SIM Tech.

A-50s serve as both the ultimate sky lookout and air command center. “They are sometimes compared, somewhat hastily, to spy planes because they have the ability to see from a great distance, more than most ground radars. But their function is not to ensure recognition, but more to coordinate the movements of the Russians. The air fleet And to warn bombers or fighters as quickly as possible when they are in range of a target or enemy anti-aircraft fire,” explains Jeff Hohn.

Rare planes

These planes are even more important to the Russian military because they are rare. “The Soviet Union was built around fifty, but has improved only ten since,” assures Jeff Hohn.

Ukraine estimates that Russia has only eight A-50s left to cover its territory and help ensure Russian superiority in Ukrainian skies. Knowing that these planes cannot fly continuously and must take turns to ensure nothing escapes Moscow’s aerial gaze, the loss of one of them “puts the Russian Air Force under pressure and could create a void in the system,” Judge Frank Ledwidge said.

The destruction of one of these aircraft would be a serious blow at the humanitarian level as well. “It has a crew of about fifteen people, usually very well trained, who will be hard to replace,” adds Frank Ledwidge.

If the loss of the A-50 is to be confirmed, the Russian General Staff will have to understand how Ukraine was able to shoot down an aircraft believed to be flying out of range of enemy fire. In this case, it was Shot north of the Sea of ​​AzovThat is, at the limit of the perceived range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.

“The plane was probably shot down with an American Patriot missile, since they are the only ones with such a range in the Ukrainian arsenal,” estimated Jeff Hohn. But it will likely “necessary to move these weapons closer to the front line to stay in range of the target, which is not without risk,” Sim Tech assures. Indeed, kyiv has a limited stock of Patriot missiles. By transporting them further into combat zones, Ukraine also exposed these valuable weapons to Russian strikes.

Effect during war?

So the Ukrainian military must have thought that destroying the A-50 was worth taking these risks. However, it is difficult to say whether such success can have a direct impact on the battlefield. Opinions differ on this point. For some, “even if Russia were to send another A-50 to support the military in the area, they would probably put it back a bit, which should reduce its surveillance effectiveness and ability to guide Russian bombers into enemy territory,” sums up Sim Tech. .

For other analysts, “this loss will mainly affect the air war, but this air dimension does not currently play a decisive role in the conflict in Ukraine”, estimates Frank Ledwige.

However, such a success – if confirmed – will leave its mark. “It’s a bit like when Ukraine manages to target the Russian fleet in the Black Sea,” underlines Frank Ledwidge. KYIV thus demonstrates its ability to strike targets that Russia may believe are under its control.