Trump is based on dystopian imaginations

President Biden Went recently NY to appear in “Late Night with Seth Myers”. He was the same person on the program as those of us who have spoken to him have seen: he is obviously not a chicken, but he is articulate, well-informed and moderately funny. The contrast couldn’t be greater Donald Trump, whose ramblings have become increasingly incoherent; After confusion Nikki Haley And Nancy Pelosi A few weeks ago, now it seems to confuse Biden again Barack Obama.

But don’t worry: Trump recently assured the audience: “No cognitive problem. If there were, I would know.”

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Republicans won’t recognize Biden’s clarity or Trump’s increasingly notable lack of clarity. But the reaction to the appearance “late night” What was most revealing to me was not about the age of the presidency; It was about what happened next. Biden and Myers went for ice cream after the show and Sen. Tommy Tuberville An Alabama social media post said Biden would enjoy his ice cream “while the rest of the city fears crime and immigrants.”

Journalists and readers drew attention to it, according to information from Centers for Disease Control and PreventionIn 2021, Alabama had a homicide rate more than three times that of New York State, and as Justin Fox Bloomberg, New York City is one of the safest large cities in the United States. Tuberville has become known for getting angry about these issues, but his comments showed two broad aspects of our politics.

First, there is a surprising double standard in the way politicians are allowed to talk about different regions of the United States. Voters in rural states often complain that they don’t get enough respect, but can you imagine if the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, describes Alabama as having an unusually high rate of firearms in 2021? Mortality, like a place where everyone runs around shooting each other and themselves?

Second, and most importantly, I am always amazed that current right-wing politics are driven by a bleak, dystopian image of America, particularly American cities, that is not based in reality.

Much of this reflects assumptions that were frozen long ago and have not been updated to reflect the ways things have changed for the better in urban America. New York was a really dangerous place a few decades ago: in 1990 there were 2,262 murders. But last year, when the pandemic-era crime spike quickly receded, there were only 391 (still too many) and the first signs are that violent crime continues to fall.

Nationally, violent crime is reaching its lowest level in 50 years, at least according to the FBI.

Those are the official statistics, but what about personal experience? I remember New York in the old days, and it’s nothing like that anymore. The polls on crime are significant, especially when broken down by party affiliation: According to Gallup, 78 percent of Republicans say crime is an extremely or very serious problem for the nation, but only 16 percent say so where they live. There is a serious problem. It’s not because Republicans live in safer places: Only 15 percent of Democrats say local crime is a serious problem.

Crime isn’t the only issue where Republicans seem to be living in the past. In another recent speech, Trump declared: “We are like a third world nation. See our airports. …I mean, how bad are the airports?” Maybe I was thinking of La Guardia in the 1970s. I had recently arrived. Newark’s new terminal a And it was a shocking reminder of how bland America’s major airports have become.

Trump has also recently been talking about “immigration crime” being “through the roof”, taking out New York (naturally). But as I’ve already noted, homicides in New York (where 36 percent of the population is foreign-born) are falling rapidly.

And while, of course, violent crimes have been committed by immigrants, including those who came here illegally, the analysis NBC News found that “despite some horrific high-profile episodes, there is no evidence of immigrant-driven crime in the United States.” USA”.

None of this says we should have open borders. In fact, this year Senate Democrats and Republicans agreed on a bill that would significantly strengthen border security; Then Republicans backed off at Trump’s gesture, clearly because Trump wanted to maintain the fear factor.

Now, I’m not saying all is well. Americans were hit hard by an increase in crime in 2020-21 and an increase in inflation in 2021-22, both of which were largely aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic. Both increases now appear to be declining rapidly, but unrest remains and many social and economic problems remain to be resolved.

In 2024, however, Trump and his party seem to be running not against America’s growing problems, but problems that have actually become much less serious.

Can a political party really win a national election based on dystopian imaginings? Unfortunately, current surveys suggest that it is possible.

© The New York Times 2024