Transnistria: 5 minutes to understand the situation in this separatist region of Moldova

Transnistria’s leaders were undoubtedly suspended by Vladimir Putin’s speech on Thursday. The Russian president ultimately didn’t have a word for him. Authorities in this pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova nevertheless requested “protection” from Moscow on Wednesday in the face of “increasing pressure” from Chisinau. A call that fueled fears of Russian intervention in the region, which borders Ukraine. Le Parisian takes stock of the situation.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a narrow strip of land 450 km long, lying between the Dniester River in the west and Ukraine in the east. It was part of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Predominantly populated by Russian speakers, the region later seceded from the Republic of Moldova to remain under Russian rule.

This decision is at the root of the “Dniester War”. The conflict, which killed hundreds of people, ended in July 1992 after Moscow negotiated a ceasefire. The region never officially rejoined Moldova and retained its autonomy. In this way he also acquired the government, the parliament and the currency (the Transnistrian ruble). However, including Russia, its independence is not recognized.

What are its relations with Russia?

Transnistria continues to maintain important relations with Russia today. 1,500 Russian troops are still there, officially on a peacekeeping mission. The region is also dependent on Russian gas, which it uses to power the country’s main electricity plants.

It is also populated by a majority of Russian speakers. In its appeal to Russia on Wednesday, Tiraspol authorities cited “more than 220,000 Russian citizens” – out of about 500,000 residents – who live in the region, according to them. Moscow made the “protection” of these residents a “priority” on Wednesday, confirming it would “carefully examine” Tiraspol’s request, without giving further details.

Why did she seek “protection” from Moscow?

Transdniestrian MPs condemned “increasing pressure from Moldova” in their statement on Wednesday. A reference to the recent obligation to pay taxes for local companies, from which they were hitherto exempt in Chisinau for their imports, suggests geopolitical analyst Ulrich Baunat.

According to him, this tax represents a “death blow” for Transnistria, “whose economy depends heavily on smuggling”. “It is in this context that the authorities in Tiraspol decided to bring together their representatives – to launch an appeal for assistance – implied financial – from Moscow, to help the regime absorb the shock,” he explains. At the Parisian.

What can Russia do?

An appeal by Transnistria’s elected officials on Wednesday revived fears of Russia’s annexation of the region or an attack on Moldova. Moscow used the pretext of defending the self-proclaimed separatist republic of Donbas to invade Ukraine just two years ago.

However, according to Ulrich Baunat the connection seems “unlikely”. If only because, unlike Ukraine, “Transnistria has completely seceded from Russia”. The latter also has no interest in conflict: “Military action will lead to a reaction from the Ukrainians and maybe the Romanians, and therefore from the EU”, he expects. Above all, observes the researcher, Transnistria is only “useful” to Moscow to the extent that it is integrated into Moldova. Because of its influence in Tiraspol, Russia has leverage over the Moldovan authorities, which it would be deprived of if the region became independent.

In its daily update on the situation in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also estimated on Wednesday that the Transnistrian separatists’ request had given the Kremlin support for “a wide range of actions against Moldova”. According to the American think tank, the most likely scenario is an intensification of volatility in performance. This comes as the EU opened negotiations for Moldova’s membership in December, and there are presidential elections due in a few months.

“Moldova is facing increasingly aggressive destabilization efforts, led by Russia,” French diplomacy also warned on Thursday, asserting that “calls for the so-called protection by Moscow of separatists deprived of any autonomy are a familiar sight.”

Should Ukraine be worried?

By threatening to intervene in Transnistria, Russia is forcing Ukraine to “put men on the border,” suggests Ulrich Baunat. The expert believes, however, that this “does not represent a very significant risk”. “The likelihood of military action against Ukraine from Transnistria appears extremely low”, with an army that is “poorly equipped” and which is “unprepared for war”, he asserts.

As for the 1,500 Russian troops stationed in the region, “they have been completely isolated over the years, as Ukraine has banned flights over its airspace,” the researcher underlines, adding that they are “not seriously trained” and ” They do not benefit from”. Logistical Support”.