Towards a dramatic increase in food prices due to climate change

Global warming will significantly increase food prices globally, according to a study published Thursday, March 21, in Communications Earth and Environment. “Rising temperatures lead to steady rise in 12-month food shortages and headline inflation in high- and low-income countries”.Study notes.

In their reflections, the initiators make it clear that their method was based on application “Fixed Effects Regression with Over 27,000 Observations of Monthly Consumer Price Indices from Around the World to Measure the Effects of Climate Conditions on Inflation”.

. The authors of the research note that the effects vary “according to seasons and regions”, Depending on the climatic conditions, “with other effects due to diurnal temperature variation and heavy rainfall”.

The effect of warming on inflation increases by about 50% in 2035

A study of the results obtained “Predicted temperature rise to 2035 indicates upward pressure on food products”. In terms of numbers, this results “Overall inflation globally averaged 0.92 to 3.23 and 0.32 to 1.18 percentage points respectively”. Experts make it clear that the fluctuation margin is evolving “Emission Scenarios, According to Climate Models and Empirical Specifications”.

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The forcing is more pronounced at lower latitudes and shows a stronger seasonality at higher latitudes with a peak in summer, the study details. According to projections, food inflation could increase by 0.43 to 0.93 percentage points from the extreme summer heat of 2022 in Europe, and could be increased by 30 to 50% by the expected warming in 2035.

Catch technological changes for better adaptation

To face this worrisome future, the study points to urgent adaptation to climate change. “Future adaptation to climate change through unprecedented technological changes offers an opportunity to limit inflationary pressures in a changing environment”It is recommended.

Experts cite as examples, “Planned adoption of space cooling (which) can limit the effects of heat stress on labor productivity”. And “Cultural change (that) can limit losses in agricultural productivity, two major channels of potentially relevant impact on inflation”.

. In advance, efforts should be made to limit, if not eliminate, greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible.

“However, without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, inflationary pressures will remain persistent and significant, even considering such adaptations go beyond what has been historically observed”Study warns.