This is the historian who predicted the end of the present world

Two years ago Peter Turchin published “Historical Dynamics.” Why States Rise and Fall”, and has since had the label “Scientist Predicting the Conflicts of 2020”. His interests developed as a result of his work as a project manager at the Vienna Center for Complexity Science; J, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. Along with his job as a scientist, he was led to analyze contemporary society. The hallmark of his approach is the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history and meteorology, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the extension of, to analyze the planetary situation. Resorts to investigation.Analysis of historical databases.

for reason

Thick words that can alienate the general reader, but Turchin presents very accessible theories, for example, about “historical dynamics”, where he reveals how populations, religions or empires develop and then they last forever. collapses until it disappears. Faced with this, the researcher, who, by the way, grew up in the Soviet Union and also holds a doctorate in zoology from Duke University, studied human history using the tools of physics, biology, mathematics or statistics. “Cliodynamics” from the conversion of a wide range of social, political, economic and demographic factors into mathematical models.

Not surprisingly, one of Turchin’s main areas of research lies in the compilation of CrisisDB, a historical database of what enters and exits society. In his eyes, certain phenomena or social models will serve to predict collective behavior patterns, which is why he dares to predict the factors that will mark the future of some countries, especially the United States.

Avoid future collapse

And he spoke precisely about this last June in an interview given to the English-language news and political website “Salon”. “Welcome to the ‘end times’: Peter Turchin sees it coming and says we can still avoid the fall,” was the headline of the publication prepared by journalist Paul Rosenberg.

To read the full note, here