This 2024 presidential election could change the world, and it’s not America’s.

(CNN) — A presidential election in 2024 certainly sounds familiar, with profound implications for the rest of the world. But this is happening much sooner than you think.

Taiwan, a small, vibrant Asian democracy on the doorstep of a much larger authoritarian neighbor, holds presidential and parliamentary elections this Saturday, and the results will reverberate beyond its borders.

China’s communist leaders, who have long claimed Taiwan as part of their territory but never controlled it, are watching the results closely.

Most Taiwanese do not want to be ruled by China, whose strongman leader Xi Jinping has tightened his internal controls as the country has become more aggressive toward its neighbors.

China openly opposes Taiwan’s current ruling party and frames the election as a choice between “war and peace, prosperity and decline”. Xi issued a fresh warning to Taiwan in a New Year’s Eve speech, declaring: “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability.”

Taiwan is also a major source of tension between China and the United States, the island’s main international sponsor and arms supplier, and relations between the two world powers have been rocky for years.

How China responds to decisions made by Taiwanese voters later this week will test whether Beijing and Washington can manage tensions or move toward further confrontation and conflict.

Here’s what you need to know about this crucial election.

Who are the candidates?

Three men will compete to succeed President Tsai Ing-wen, who has held office for eight years and cannot run for re-election due to term limits.

The favorite in a close race is Lai Ching-te, the current vice chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which defends Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty and its separate identity from China.

Las, a doctor-turned-politician, previously described himself as “a practical activist for Taiwan independence,” a claim that angered Beijing and worried Washington. But he moderated his stance during the election campaign, pledging, like Tsai, to maintain the “status quo” and offering to talk to Beijing “under the principles of equality and dignity”. Beijing has rejected his offers, calling them “wormmakers” and “destroyers of cross-Strait peace”.

Lai’s running mate, Shiao Bi-Khim, is a well-known figure in Washington, where he recently served as Taiwan’s ambassador. China has twice sanctioned the Shiites for being “stubborn separatists”.

Lai’s biggest rival is Hou Yu-ieh, a former police officer from Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party and the popular mayor of New Taipei City, which has traditionally favored closer ties with China. Hou blames the DPP for provoking China and advocates “peaceful relations” with its neighbor by keeping dialogue open and boosting economic and social ties. It also promises to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses.

A third contender, Ko Wen-jae, comes from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which he founded only in 2019. Taipei’s charismatic former mayor presents himself as a political outsider. His focus on fundamental issues has been particularly well received by young voters, many of whom are frustrated with Taiwan’s traditional political bipartisanship, as well as stagnant wages and unaffordable housing.

On relations with China, Ko has spoken of a “middle way”, accusing the DPP of being too hostile and criticizing the KMT for being too dignified.

No political party has been elected to power for a third term in Taiwan. If Lai wins a second term in the DPP, it would be unprecedented in the island’s 27-year democratic history and a potent symbol of the failure of China’s bellicose approach to Taiwan.

How did China react?

China has long used a combination of carrot and stick in trying to persuade Taiwan to submit to its “reunification” plan. But under Xi it has largely become a matter of austerity.

Since Tsai’s first election eight years ago, Beijing has cut off most communications with Taipei, cordoned off a dwindling number of its diplomatic allies, scaled back cross-Strait exchanges and significantly increased military pressure.

The assertive measures have pushed cross-Strait relations to their lowest level in decades and further isolated Taiwan. Less than 3% of Taiwanese now identify as predominantly Chinese, and less than 10% support immediate or eventual unification.

Taiwan has also deepened its ties with Western nations, including the US, over the past eight years, which has worried Beijing.

Officials in China, a party state, have urged the people of Taiwan to make the “right choice,” widely considered a euphemism, for not voting for the DPP.

Taiwanese officials have accused China of trying to interfere in their elections, including through social media disinformation campaigns and economic coercion.

Ahead of the election, China has maintained military pressure on Taiwan, sending fighter jets, drones and warships near its skies and waters. Beijing has also launched balloons over the island, in what Taiwan’s defense ministry described as part of “psychological warfare to affect the morale of our people”.

While few experts expect an imminent invasion by the People’s Liberation Army, Beijing has plenty of ways to show its displeasure, from a show of force through military exercises to a further suspension of trade ties with Taiwan or even a blockade.

How far these actions can go — and how the United States and its allies will respond — will be closely watched by a world already nervous about the conflicts ravaging Europe and the Middle East.

What is the relationship of the United States with Taiwan?

Washington severed formal ties with Taiwan in 1979 after changing diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Since then, the United States has maintained close unofficial relations with Taiwan and is required by law to provide the island with the means to defend itself. But he has long been deliberately vague about whether he would come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese attack.

Under President Joe Biden — and his predecessor Donald Trump — the United States has increased support and arms sales to Taiwan. Biden has also said on several occasions that the United States will defend Taiwan if China invades, raising questions about whether the United States is moving away from its longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity.”

That irritates Beijing, which warns that the Taiwan issue is “the first red line that should not be crossed in Sino-US relations.”

Washington maintains that it does not favor any presidential candidate in Taiwan, and Biden said he clearly warned Xi not to interfere in the election during their summit in San Francisco in November.

Taiwan’s election comes as the United States seeks to stabilize strained relations with China and prevent competition from escalating into conflict.

Meanwhile, the United States will hold its own presidential election in November, a vote that will be closely watched by Taiwan’s new leaders and the island’s 24 million residents.