The US Trying to avoid his worst nightmare: escalation of conflict in the Middle East in the middle of an election year | International

Nine stops in one week. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Istanbul this Friday on the first leg of his new, marathon tour of the Middle East. It is the fourth in three months and the most critical so far. The objectives are the same as previous visits: to pressure Israel to moderate its tactics in Gaza and to outline the future of the Strip after the war. But in this it specifically seeks to prevent rising tensions in the region from degenerating into a larger conflict…

Nine stops in one week. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Istanbul this Friday on the first leg of his new, marathon tour of the Middle East. It is the fourth in three months and the most critical so far. The objectives are the same as previous visits: to pressure Israel to moderate its tactics in Gaza and to outline the future of the Strip after the war. But in this he specifically seeks to prevent rising tensions in the region from degenerating into a conflict of greater importance and unpredictable consequences, when the US election campaign is about to begin.

Preventing the escalation of the crisis beyond Gaza has been a major objective of the United States since the beginning of the conflict following the Hamas attack on October 7 and the Israeli offensive in Gaza in response. For weeks, Washington strengthened its military presence in the region and the threat appeared relatively contained. But now, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militias in the Red Sea, the drone assassination of Hamas number two Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut, and attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria threaten to fan the flames. Unruly in the region, inevitably drag Washington into the electoral fray. That’s a devastating prospect for Joe Biden, with re-election at stake in the November election. The president, who began his first term by announcing a withdrawal from Afghanistan, ends with open conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“The risks are real and the concerns are great. It has always been real and the anxiety has always been great. For this reason, the pace of this administration’s activity to reduce the risk of conflict escalation has also been good since the beginning of the crisis, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller noted in announcing Blinken’s trip.

Washington’s anger with Israel

The rise in tensions also comes at a fragile time in relations between Washington and Israel. The United States maintains its support for its ally both in statements and in arms shipments: just a week ago, the Biden administration again bypassed Congress to approve 147.5 million dollars (135 million euros) in ammunition and equipment for your partner. But their distaste for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is increasingly visible. This week, the State Department condemned in particularly inflammatory language the statements of two Israeli ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who called for the evacuation of Gaza of its Palestinian residents.

Alarmed by the turn of events, the White House has launched an all-out diplomatic offensive. Blinken’s trip preceded a visit to Israel this week by presidential adviser Amos Hochstein, while the Middle East ambassador in Washington, Brett McGurk, met with the Lebanese foreign minister on Wednesday.

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“I am returning to the region to engage in additional diplomacy on the situation in Gaza. “I will continue to plead for the protection of civilian lives and work intensively with our partners to ensure the release of hostages and the continued delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza,” Blinken wrote on old Twitter X shortly before starting the trip. For Turkey.

Its mission goes further, according to the State Department. “He will address urgent measures to stop violence, calm rhetoric and reduce regional tensions, including preventing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and avoiding an escalation in Lebanon,” he noted while announcing the trip.

In addition to Turkey and the Greek island of Crete, the American diplomatic chief will visit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt. “We don’t expect every conversation on this journey to be easy. Clearly, the region faces complex issues and difficult decisions on the road ahead,” acknowledged State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

In Israel, Blinken plans to highlight “the need to do more to reduce tensions in the West Bank”, call for “immediate action to significantly increase humanitarian aid to Gaza” and address the government’s plans for “transition to the next phase”. According to a spokesperson.

They will be some of the toughest conversations of the trip. Israel rejects the two-state solution advocated by the United States and proposes a Palestinian civilian administration in Gaza while maintaining military control of the territory. He assured that he would continue his offensive and demanded that Washington end rocket fire from Hezbollah from southern Lebanon to northern Israel and withdraw north of the Litani River. This week he warned Hochstein that such mediation was running out of time and threatened to deal a serious blow to Iranian-backed Shiite militias.

Time for democracy

Washington believes there is still time for diplomacy. “From what we see, there is no apparent desire by Hezbollah to go to war with Israel, and vice versa,” noted a senior administration official this week, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But, at the same time, the United States is hardening its military posture. However, it has withdrawn one of the two aircraft carriers it sent to the area at the start of the conflict Gerald Fordmaintains Eisenhower and a fleet of battleships, as well as additional aircraft and troops with which it is reinforced.

On Thursday, he killed a Shiite militia leader in Baghdad with a drone, angering the Iraqi government. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudan has announced a committee for the departure of international coalition forces from the country.

In the Red Sea, the United States is leading a coalition of more than a dozen countries to protect more than 25 merchant ships from Houthi attacks since the crisis began. Earlier this week, the coalition issued a stern warning against new attacks and vowed that the Iran-backed militia would also “suffer the consequences” if the clashes were repeated. “Don’t expect another warning,” the aforementioned senior US official pointed out in this regard.

But on Thursday the militia launched an unmanned ship loaded with explosives into the Red Sea for the first time since the start of the crisis. According to the Pentagon, it did not hit any ships, but it contributed to further raising the temperature in the region. Washington’s great fear is that one of these attempts would sink a merchant ship, which would represent a serious escalation.

The White House assures that it will act decisively to protect the interests of the United States and its citizens, but it also does not want to contribute to triggering a situation in which it could be drawn into a larger role in the Middle East.

“We will act very forcefully on any threat to our people or our interests. We’re also going to do it in a very intelligent way, which potentially doesn’t drag us into the depths of a situation that plays in favor of those groups,” the senior official maintained, backed by Iran.

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