The Union shows Hungary the exit door – Liberation

Twenty-seven are meeting in Brussels this Thursday, February 1, for an extraordinary summit to try to lift the Hungarian veto on 50 billion euros of financial aid to Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a European summit in December, vetoed the 50 billion euros in financial aid he wants to pay Ukraine, climbing a coconut tree so high that he would have trouble coming down without hurting himself. . Indeed, it is the first time in European history that a small country of 10 million inhabitants weighing less than 1% of the Community’s GDP has blocked a decision of vital importance. However, we do not see what room for maneuver a popular leader has. His 26 partners, quite upset, have no intention of handing him the slightest gift during the European Council of Heads of State and Government meeting this Thursday, February 1 in Brussels to try to unlock this aid. For now, there is only one option: either it retreats into the open countryside – a scenario favored by Kiev – or it exposes itself to retaliatory measures.

“Hungary will not give in to blackmail”

Viktor Orbán was surprised when, in December, and contrary to what he had been announcing for several months, he did not oppose opening accession talks with Ukraine, content to leave the room at the time of the decision. He chose to veto an increase of 64.6 billion euros in the Community budget for the period 2024-2027, including 50 billion in financial aid for Ukraine (33 billion in loans and 17 billion in donations). For him, there is no question of this aid passing through the European budget, so that it does not have to contribute. Above all, he wanted assurances that the 21 billion euros he will receive in budgetary funds (part of the post-Covid recovery fund and regional aid) are still stable as his multiple attacks on the rule of law and endemic corruption take a hit. The day before the country summit, however, the Commission presented another 10.2 billion euros, which, unlike the European Parliament, was satisfied with the justice reform adopted by Budapest to appease it. A gesture of goodwill that served no purpose, Orbán perceived as a sign of weakness.

officially, “Hungary makes no link between support for Ukraine and access to European funds, and refuses to allow other actors to do so. It will continue to participate constructively in the negotiations, but it will not succumb to blackmail. European Affairs Minister János Boca reiterated this week. “In fact, thematic mixing has become Orbán’s method in Brussels,” Indicates an observer of the Hungarian political scene. “Hungary believes that this money is being withheld without reason, says Gergely Fejerdy, a professor at the University of Budapest and associate researcher at the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs, a think tank close to the government. It seems to me that it is not so much a question of respecting certain European standards as a political position taken by the Commission against a country which we choose to turn into a black sheep.

In the latest national consultation organized by Budapest, 99% of citizens checked the answer “Let’s not pay more for Ukraine until we receive the funds we are owed.”

Although the exercise is skewed – less than a quarter of voters chose to fill out the form and the opposition called for a forced boycott – the figures give the government an argument. Of course, there are solutions in the twenty-six that would make it possible to circumvent the Hungarian veto, such as the creation of a special fund intended for Ukraine. Not only would it be cumbersome and politically risky (it would have to go through 26 national parliaments), but it would allow Orbán to claim victory. To pay the European funds unconditionally, this would mean emptying the European law, after the creation of the recovery fund provided by the common loan, the payment of aid for the respect of the rule of law – the main weapon of the Union to prevent liberal excesses.

Orbán, feeling isolated, outlined a compromise: accept that 50 billion euros go through the European budget, but on the condition that twenty-seven people vote unanimously in favor of the release of a new round of funding each year. ‘Help. “Hungary is not anti-Ukrainian, but we cannot turn a blind eye to this country. Four years is a long time, the war can evolve. It is better to reassess the needs every year,” Gergely Fejérdy requests. But risking a Hungarian veto every year is against the grain of the forecast desired by the union, which immediately rejected the proposal.

Threat of sanctions against Budapest

The Budapest partners want to believe that an agreement at Twenty-Seven is possible. So the pressure on the country is maximum. At Elysée, we emphasize that, certainly, the Hungarian veto has weight “a risk” On the Union and Ukraine, but also on Hungary if it chooses “To come out of the game more clearly”. A push that is political, but also hard and fast, the Hungarian economy is largely dependent on European aid – as a reminder, the 21 billion euros it is asking for represent 12% of its GDP. If he goes to war with Brussels, he can undoubtedly say goodbye to all Community funds.

Another hypothesis is to reactivate the procedure of Article 7 of the EU Treaty launched in 2018 against Hungary for not respecting European values, which were frozen by the states. If the twenty-six decide unanimously, it can deprive Hungary of its right to vote. Certainly Slovakia could come to its aid, but it does not have the weight of Poland which had supported it until then, and is also in a position of financial dependence on the Union. The fact that Budapest is being shown the exit door shows the magnitude of the crisis the EU is going through and that Orban is playing a dangerous game for uncertain profit.