The Sun will reach its maximum activity much earlier than expected

A new study shows that peak solar activity is coming much sooner than expected. And the implications for Earth are significant.

If “terrestrial” weather is a phenomenon of public interest, solar weather is much less so. That is really the work of scientists and especially astronomers. However, its effects on the planet are very real and can have a concrete impact on our daily lives. One of the missions of astronomers is to monitor the activity of the Sun and especially the intensity of this activity. Three astronomers, Priyansh Jaswal, Chitradeep Saha and Dibyendu Nandi of the “Centre of Excellence in Space Science India” published a study on the subject in the scientific journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, which specializes in astronomy and astrophysics.

Unlike the latest predictions that predicted a peak in solar activity in July 2025, these researchers predicted that the peak could actually occur as early as January 2024, and perhaps in a few months. Concretely, peaks in solar activity can lead to solar storms, commonly known as “solar flares”. These flares correspond to the release of energy from the Sun’s surface in the form of electromagnetic waves. They are significantly responsible for the Northern Lights and can also threaten satellites. That is why such an event can disrupt electrical networks and interfere with radio communications.

The results of this new study show that the systems for observing solar activity currently used by most of the scientific community are not adequate. Although it is a scientific certainty that solar activity is cyclical, it remains quite mysterious. This cycle lasts about 11 years. When moving from one cycle to another, there is a peak in solar activity, followed by a decline in activity. Scientists determine this tipping point by observing sunspots. But Indian studies call this method into question. Indeed, forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the American oceanic and atmospheric observation agency, predicted the peak of activity in July 2025 but the reality of the event contradicted these predictions.

Solar activity turns out to be much more powerful than expected. NOAA reversed these predictions and also estimated that the peak of activity could occur between January and October 2024. While scientists are aware that there are few ways to protect themselves against such an event, further studies, particularly of the Sun’s magnetic activity, may help anticipate its consequences.