The study highlights thousands of lives saved by lockdowns and vaccinations

We believed that everything about the Covid-19 pandemic has been written, explained, criticized. We believe we now know everything about the disaster averted, the steps taken by some “freedom killers”, the misconceptions and the real health consequences. To be honest, the subject looked tired, washed out, abandoned…

We thought everything had been written, explained, criticized on the Covid-19 pandemic. We thought we now knew everything about the disaster averted, the steps taken by some “freedom killers”, the misconceptions and the real health consequences. To put it plainly, the subject was exhausted, rinsed, abandoned in the hands of the ultimate anti-vaxxers, who mix statistics at will. What remained were distant memories of the silent streets, the queues at the vacinodrome, the fear in our stomachs, the prime minister’s beard turning white before our eyes. And then a team of researchers from the University and University Hospitals of Bordeaux, Inserm and Inria (1) comes to solve our uncertainties. Like clarity.

University of Bordeaux

Imprisonments, curfews, school closures, borders, masks, teleworking, hydroalcoholic gels, obstructive gestures have punctuated our lives between January 2020 and October 2021. Have these measures, which have deprived us of our liberties, served anything and to what extent? In 2021, 53 million people received the first injection of the anti-Covid vaccine. so what A team of public health researchers from the University of Bordeaux, CHU, Inserm, Inria, who joined forces with Canadian researchers from McGill University, used all public data available in France, by department, to measure the impact of these measures. “The idea is to observe the past situation, to learn from it and to prepare for a possible new epidemic,” begins Rodolphe Thibaut, professor of public health at the University of Bordeaux, head of the study. Our work considers the economic, psychological and social costs of these measures. »

“In the first confinement, transmission of the virus was reduced by 84%. 6 pm curfew has proved more effective than 8 pm curfew”

159,000 deaths avoided

In addition to statistical data collected from Santee Public France, the researchers retrieved all weather data from the time. “To be more precise, Rodofe Thibet comments, because the hypothesis of the spread of the virus in the first month took into account the weather conditions. In summer, people were supposed to open windows, ventilate and change their behavior. Therefore, by collecting this historical data, we estimated the impact, knowing that before us, other studies were published by WHO, it was interesting to compare our results, which are relevant. » And they go further. Thus, the Bordeaux study showed that the most restrictive measures, i.e. first incarceration, followed by a curfew, had a significant effect on reducing virus transmission. “The first incarceration allowed for an 84% reduction in transmission,” explains the professor. The 6 pm curfew proved more effective than the 8 pm curfew, 68% less for the former, compared to 48% for the latter. To close the schools, they reduced transmission by 15%. »

Still in the same study, the researchers analyzed different scenarios, including a similar Covid epidemic without a vaccine until October 2021. This forecast sends shivers down your spine: at least 159,000 additional deaths in the country, and 1.48 million more cases of hospitalization in France.

“If France had been confined a week earlier, 20,000 deaths would have been avoided”

In fact, 116,000 people have died in France due to the epidemic and 460,000 have been hospitalized according to INSEE figures. “We managed to get the vaccine in one year, it was already extraordinary,” continues Rodolphe Thibaut. But we envision a similar situation with a vaccine a hundred days later, which is the goal of the International Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). In this case, a third of deaths and three-quarters of hospitalizations would have been avoided. Our other simulations show that if France had been confined a week earlier, 20,000 deaths could have been avoided. »

Rapid decisions in the event of an epidemic

The analysis of the estimates produced by the team of researchers in Bordeaux is rich in lessons. Ideologies aside, it is clear that restrictive measures, poorly received, with health and economic consequences not negligible, were “least bad” decisions. Immunization is an effective asset. “This result emphasizes the importance of rapid vaccine deployment,” said Professor Thibaut. This study shows that in the event of a new pandemic, it will be necessary to implement the best vaccine research and development strategies and make rapid decisions to save as many human lives as possible. » And to recall that without the vaccine, in addition to the 159,000 deaths, the increase in hospitalizations would have created such chaos in the health system that other non-Covid deaths would have had to be condemned.

(1) National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology.