According to the latest economic report published this Monday by the Superior Council of Notaries and presented by Les Ecos, the crisis in the real estate sector continues to intensify. The numbers show A significant drop in transactions, especially in new properties, thus exacerbates the trend seen in older properties.
Lending rates reported as of 02/13/2024
transactions in 2023
According to recent data collected by notaries, the decline in the volume of transactions in the old sector is more than expected. In November, year-over-year volume was 885,000 transactions, but with December data, It should handle 860,000 transactions for the yearAccording to Superior Council of Notaries spokesman Edward Grimmond. Thus the decline goes from -20 to -21.1% in a rolling year.
This downward trend is expected to continue, though perhaps at a slower pace, in the coming months. Analysts are counting on a rate cut and a downward adjustment in selling prices to offset this slowdown in volumes. However, stability is not expected Before the third quarter of 2024, according to current estimates on initial contracts, which do not indicate any immediate improvement. This downturn in the real estate market has not been seen since 2013.
A historic fall for the new
With the exception of some “block sales by promoters” which are considered marginal, The real estate market has been hampered by rising interest rates and difficulties in accessing financing for rental investments, According to the economic report.
sale decreased by 32.9% and number of reservations 40% reduction Over a year in the third quarter of 2023. As a result, the stock of new housing has reached a historic high of 131,400 properties, i.e. An increase of 16.7% More than a year. According to Edouard Grimond, the sector is suffering from both the structural and cyclical consequences of the real estate crisis.
Selling price of old goods
According to notaries, old real estate prices are being realigned A decrease of 2% in mainland FranceFor apartments and 1.6% for households. Despite these adjustments, the amount remains high, which slows down purchasing decisions, especially due to rate hikes. Edouard Grimmond points out that this reduction remains less significant than inflation, which causes a loss of purchasing power for households.
It should be noted that the price variation depending on the region is very heterogeneous. Some tourist regions, viz South of France and mountainous areas, Continue watching Increase in price, as shown by the examples of Toulon (+6.4%) and Nîmes (+6.3%) for apartments over one year. However, recent measures aimed at controlling seasonal rents may and may change the situation A possible decline in transactions in the tourist real estate sector.
Old price forecast in February 2024
Finally, the notary’s financial report makes it clear The decline is expected to continue in earlier times. Overall, house prices will continue to decline significantly, with declines up to 4.2%, And this, both for apartments and houses. Negotiations on the energy performance of real estate are also felt.
In Île-de-France, real estate prices are experiencing the steepest decline nationally, with A decrease of 7% More than a year. According to the latest data on preliminary contracts, the average price of apartments has been reached 9,630 euros per square meter.
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