The Banque de France has revised growth to 0.8% for 2024.

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While the government last month revised up its growth forecast for 2024 by 0.4 points, from 1.4% to 1%, the Banque de France revised up its forecast. In its “intermediate projections” published this Tuesday evening, the institute expects GDP growth of just 0.8% this year, down from 0.9% previously. The correction is actually very small and can be explained by “Low growth achieved at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023

” As for the difference between the Bercy forecast (1%) and the Banque de France news (0.8%), it comes down to “.margin of uncertainty», comments in an exclusive interview with the Governor of the Banque de France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Figaro .

Next year, growth will accelerate, to 1.5%, then 1.7% in 2026, the bank predicts, “Driven by more favorable assumptions on energy prices and financial conditions” Interest rates should indeed fall in the spring as inflation slows. The Banque de France confirms a reduction in price increases in its forecast. The consumer price index, after a rise of 5.7% during last year, will fall to 1.7% in 2025, below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. should stabilize at 2.5% this year before reachingLess salary increases in the short term

“This slowdown will help disinflation but could slow the recovery in consumption.

On the employment front, the bank expects a slight increase in the unemployment rate, rising to 7.8% in 2023 from 7.5%.From the end of 2024 to the end of 2025“