Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Estonia is more on alert than ever

“How should the residents of Narva behave in times of crisis? Run away from the city or stay in hiding? Any plans to help the population?” On January 27, the Studio Narva program, aired on Estonian public broadcasting’s Russian-language channel ETV+, opens with unexpected questions for Saturday evenings and reveals the spirit of the times. Viewers are invited to vote via SMS: “In an extreme situation, including war, who would you rely on: the state or yourself?”

Before the discussion, a report on first aid training and the conversion of basements into safe shelters is aired. “In a state of emergency”: the slogan, repeated, is clear, even if Russia is not mentioned once. In Narva, Estonia and Russia are about 150 meters apart, separated by a river of the same name and a time zone.

The weather in the city is quite calm in late January. In front of the station, Alexandre plays the violin to relieve his boredom. His handmade souvenir shop is empty. “Earlier, European tourists used to stay here before traveling to Russia. And Russians don’t come anymore,” he sighs.

A coach from Tallinn, the Estonian capital, stops before heading to the border post. For a few more days, trips to St. Petersburg continue to be provided. “We are transporting people who need it and who do not support the war in Ukraine. In the absence of air connections, it is important to ensure a minimum service for people with families on both sides of the border”, argued Ingmar Roos. , General Director of the company Lux Express.

The durability of these cross-border connections was then in doubt. But from 1^er February, vehicles can no longer cross the border. Automobile traffic on the bridge connecting Narva and the Russian city of Ivangorod has been suspended by the Russian side, which justifies the closure by the work.

“Be ready!”

In the humid fog, Narva Castle flies the flags of Estonia, the European Union and NATO, facing the medieval fortress of Ivangorod on the Russian side. There was frequent back-and-forth between the two banks to meet family or shop cheaply. The figures who cross the bridge on foot when they come to Estonia are not very talkative – they talk about politics as they walk the icy sidewalks of the city: with caution.

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, international media have come here to survey the local population, which remains Russian-speaking more than thirty years after the collapse of the USSR. And in Narva, the assessment of the war proved ambiguous, contrasting with the unconditional support for Ukraine in the rest of the country. But over time, “pro-Putin judgments, if they have not disappeared, will no longer be openly displayed”, comments Gleb, thirty years of Russia.

Estonia was further shaken by the war as it celebrated Independence Day on February 24 – its first independence, dating back to 1918. History has taught this country of 1.3 million inhabitants, annexed by the USSR in 1940, a visceral distrust of Moscow. And even if Estonia has been a member of NATO for twenty years, the repetition of the Ukrainian scenario – a Russian aggression justified by the defense of the Russian-speaking population – is a hypothesis that makes it particularly feverish.

At the intersection, a billboard attracts the attention of passers-by. “Don’t stress, download the Ole Valmis app (“Be prepared”, in French, editor’s note)”. As a symbol of a blue triangle on an orange background, the symbol of civil protection, Ole Valmis, created in 2018, presents itself as a pocket manual that advises on the behavior to adopt in various critical situations such as power outages or assistance. A person at risk.

“These tips are of public utility, and we can’t train everyone, so we’re trying to reach as many people as possible,” says Alyssa Jackson, a member of the Defense League’s women’s branch, Nyskodukaytse. At its core, the Estonian petition organization now has around 3,900 volunteers.

“Many considered joining our side but put it off until later. The war in Ukraine, which began in 2014, had the effect of a wake-up call,” she says. In this context of heightened tension, Estonian emergency services are calling for equal vigilance. “The security situation in Europe has changed so drastically that we must be prepared to face anything,” he underlined in a detailed document that specifically lists products to be stored at home or taken in the event of an evacuation.

Baltic line of defense

Since the country regained its independence in 1991, the Estonian Defense League, dissolved during the Soviet occupation, has been reorganized. If in the Baltic countries, the fear inspired by Moscow has never gone away, the war in Ukraine has restored a clear line of demarcation between Russia and Europe. Tallinn is on alert.

A few days after Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s official visit to Estonia last January, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced the signing of an agreement with his Latvian and Lithuanian counterparts regarding the construction of “defensive anti-mobility installations” on the borders of Russia and Belarus. . In Estonia, this “defense line” would result in the establishment of 600 bunkers, mainly in the county of Viru-East, in the Narva region. At the same time, the country has begun renovating air bases inherited from the Soviet era.

In the meantime, authorities are tracking the relay of influence. Last month, local intelligence announced the arrest of a professor at the prestigious University of Tartu, Vyacheslav Morozov, a Russian national accused of spying for the Russian secret services.

Another case, from the same period: the primate of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, who was also Russian, was refused an extension of his residence permit on the grounds that he represented a threat to national security. In Russia, cases of this nature are considered provocations and duly published in the media.

“Parallel Universe”

In Narva, the majority of residents are of Russian origin. The largely destroyed city was rebuilt in 1944 and rebuilt by the population elsewhere, mainly from Russia. The latter, who had neither Estonian origins nor knowledge of the language, were marginalized upon independence.

“For years, the state seemed to be telling them, ‘Live your life, but don’t bother us,’ which made it possible to create a parallel universe,” says Gleb, who is passionate about the history of his adopted city. A mental universe shaped by the Russian media is able to fill a certain identity void. It was only in 2015, after the shock caused by the annexation of Crimea, that Estonian public broadcasting launched a news channel in Russian. An eventual reaction which, according to Gleb, “left a lost generation passively assimilating the Russian narrative”.

The 2023 legislative elections provided further evidence of this: in the Narva region, a pro-Kremlin candidate surprised by not managing to be elected to parliament. Ivo Petersen, the leader of the Kuos (“Together”) movement, now accused of treason, caused a stir by going to the Donbass on the Russian side of the front. The Minister of Education, Kristina Kallas, explained the result of the vote by “thirty years spent ignoring the question of integration of the region and the Russian-speaking population”.

Memorial Gap

Ivan Sergeyev works there in the Ministry of Finance. His mission is to lead the transition of this suffering industrial region, where the population has been in steady decline since independence, due to a lack of economic prospects – unemployment is twice as high as elsewhere. Originally from Narva, he adopted the Estonian language. “Change must come through education,” he believes, “because lack of language knowledge marginalizes the local population: it limits professional integration and prevents access to positions of responsibility.”

In August 2022, the Estonian state celebrated the USSR’s victory over Nazi Germany by destroying a Soviet tank, sparking outrage in Narva. In the middle of the war in Ukraine, the gesture was symbolic. “Some had the impression that part of their identity was being taken away from them,” analyzes Ivan Sergeyev. The Soviet past still fuels marked opposition, and is at the heart of intractable conflicts between Russia and its neighbors.

The connection of Russian speakers with the rest of Estonia also depends on the ability to bring this population into a common imagination. The information in any case crossed the river well: the following year, on the occasion of the May 9 commemoration honoring the Soviet victory during the Second World War, a huge screen was installed on the Russian bank. So that the residents of Narva do not miss the show at all.