Schumer and Biden are right about Netanyahu

Last week I saw an elephant fly: the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer – a lifelong supporter of Israel – gave a speech urging Israelis to hold elections as soon as possible to oust the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu And in his far-right cabinet.

It was a big flying elephant. And that’s generating predictable responses from the Jewish right (Schumer is a traitor), from Netanyahu (Israel is “not a banana republic”) and from cynics (Schumer is just moving closer to the Democratic left). All guessed answers and all wrong answers.

The real answer is one question: What control has emerged in the relationship between the United States and Netanyahu that Chuck Schumer, as a man sincerely devoted to Israel’s well-being, called on Israelis to replace Netanyahu and gave his speech, was smart and sensitive, which “many Hailed by President Joe Biden as a “good speech,” describing concerns shared by Americans?

Israelis and friends of Israel ignore that fundamental question at their peril.

The answer has to do with profound changes in United States policy and geopolitics Middle EastA change that war between Israel and Hamas He released and has made Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate any vision of Israeli-Palestinian relations based on two states for two peoples a threat to both Biden’s foreign policy goals and his re-election chances.

Before explaining why, I want to make something very clear Schumer and Biden They also clarified that: The war in the Gaza Strip was imposed on Israel by Hamas’s ferocious attacks on Israeli border communities, populated by more moderate Israelis. across the country’s political spectrum. If you call for a “ceasefire now” in Gaza and calls for a “ceasefire now and the release of the hostages,” the problem is getting worse. Because it only fuels Israelis’ fear that the world is against them, no matter what they do.

Those protesting Israel’s war in Gaza and the numerous civilian casualties there also have a responsibility to condemn Hamas, as Schumer did. It is a murderous organization that has brought death, destruction and despair to the people of Gaza, and has done as much as any actor in the region to destroy the possibility of a two-state solution since the 1980s.

Back to the argument: Why has Netanyahu become a geographic and political problem for the United States and Biden?

The short answer is that America’s entire Middle East strategy right now — and, I would argue, Israel’s long-term interests — depends on Israel’s partnership with the non-Hamas Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah in the West Bank, to achieve long-term gains. Term purposes. development needs of the Palestinians and, ultimately, on the two-state solution. And Netanyahu has flatly rejected that, with plans fully worked out for another day in Gaza.

Why do Israel and the United States need a Palestinian partner and a vision for a two-state solution? i saw Six reasons; There are many, but they all influence Biden’s challenge and political destiny:

1) No army has ever had to fight an enemy in such a dense urban environment It consists of about 350 to 450 miles of underground tunnels that stretch from one end of the battlefield to the other. As a result, such urban warfare always causes many casualties among innocent civilians, even with the most careful military, let alone one enraged by the killing and kidnapping of many children, parents and grandparents. For the Gaza citizens who survived, I am sure nothing can compensate for the loss of their children, parents and grandparents. But Israel’s expressed desire to forge a new relationship between Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank will at least give some hope to all parties, including Palestinians not led by Hamas, that such bloodshed will never happen again. . .

2) This is the first major war between Israel and Hamas in the TikTok era. This is how TikTok was designed for war: 15-second videos of the worst human suffering, streamed continuously. Faced with this media tsunami, Israel needed a clear message of commitment to the post-war peace process, which aims for two states. Israel had none. As a result, Israel is not only alienating many Arab and Muslim Americans, Biden administration officials say, but is also at risk of losing the support of an entire generation of global youth (including part of the base of the Democratic Party).

3) This is not a “revenge” war. As in all previous wars between Hamas and Israel, in which Israel punished Hamas for firing rockets into the country, but left it in power when the fighting ended. On the other hand, the purpose of this war is to destroy Hamas once and for all.

So, from the beginning, Israel needed an alternative concept of how Gaza could and should be legitimately governed by non-Hamas Palestinians, and no Palestinian would ever step up to that job without at least some process. Legal of two states.

4) The Hamas attack was designed to prevent Israel from becoming more embedded in the Arab world than it was thanks to the Abraham Accords. and the initial normalization process with Saudi Arabia. Consequently, Israel’s response had to be designed to preserve those important new relationships. That will only be possible if Israel is on the one hand fighting Hamas in Gaza and on the other actively pursuing two states.

5) This war had an important territorial component. Very quickly, Israel found itself fighting Hamas in Gaza and Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The only way Israel could build regional alliances — and allow Biden to help align regional allies — was if Israel simultaneously pursued a peace process with non-Hamas Palestinians. It is the necessary cement for a regional alliance against Iran. Without that cement, Biden’s grand strategy of building an alliance against Iran and Russia (and China) that stretches from India, to the Arabian Peninsula, to North Africa and the European Union/NATO, seems stymied. No one wants to sign on to protect Israel whose government is dominated by extremists who want to permanently occupy both the West Bank and Gaza.

That’s why Schumer said: “No one expects Prime Minister Netanyahu to do what it takes to break the cycle of violence, maintain Israel’s credibility on the world stage, and work toward a two-state solution,” when Schumer asked the president. The Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, steps aside and makes way for a new generation of even better rulers.

6) Political scientist Gautam MukundaAuthor of the book “Electing Presidents”I made this last and true comment: “The rise of the progressive left and Netanyahu’s tacit alliance with Trump have weakened support for Israel among Democrats. If Israel wages a war in Gaza with many civilian casualties – but offers no political hope for a better future for both Israelis and Palestinians – it will over time darken people’s memories of the horror of October 7 and their support for Israel in its wake. It makes it increasingly difficult for even the most pro-Israel American figures like Schumer to support the war in the face of enormous domestic and international costs.

For all these reasons, and I can’t say it out loud, Israel has a primary interest in pursuing a two-state horizon. And I cannot repeat this enough. I don’t know if the Palestinian Authority can work together to form the government that Palestinians and Israelis need.; All I know is that now everyone is very interested in trying to make it that way.

As such, I think Biden’s strategy will most likely go like this: put as much pressure on all sides as possible to achieve a ceasefire and another hostage release. Such a cessation of hostilities would freeze any Israeli military plans for a full-scale invasion of Rafah to capture or kill Hamas leaders believed to be hiding there, an invasion that would most likely cause more civilian casualties. (I assume the United States will urge Israel to use more targeted means.)

Then use the cease-fire to introduce a US-Arab-EU peace initiative that guarantees the Israelis broader and deeper normalization and security with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, than ever before. Support for a two-state solution.

With that in hand, Biden could formulate a choice for Israel’s next election: “Biden’s plan versus Bibi’s non-plan,” rather than Netanyahu versus Biden personally. Let Netanyahu choose between being remembered as the prime minister who presided on October 7 or as the prime minister who paved the way for Saudi Arabia.

is late There are a million moving parts and any of them can fail. But how the next phase of this Gaza conflict might unfold and why Schumer’s speech was not just a personal reflection, but a deep reflection of the best interests of the United States at this moment, and I think that was a deep reflection of the interests of the United States. as well. Israelis and Palestinians.

© The New York Times 2024