“Russia is well aware that it does not have the means to annex Transnistria”

Florent Parmentier is a Doctor of Political Science, General Secretary of CEVIPOF, Center for Political Research at Sciences Po Paris and Associate Researcher at the HEC Center for Geopolitics. He is the author, with Josette Durieu, of no Moldova at the crossroads of the world (Editions non Liu, 2019).

Le Figaro. – The separatist authorities in Transnistria have asked in Moscow this Wednesday “protective measures is” . Some observers point out that Putin used the call of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine to launch his invasion two years ago. So should we expect Moscow to try to annex Transnistria?

Florent Parmentier. – Relations between Moscow and Moldova have never deteriorated since the brief war of 1992, which led to the autonomy of Transnistria. But we must distinguish perceived intentions from abilities. Tiraspol and Moscow are well aware that Russia does not have the means to annex Transnistria. I remind you that only 1,500 Russian soldiers are present on the site. Above all, Moldova does not have a common border with Russia. Russian troops in Kherson are more than 200 kilometers to the north. Moscow therefore has no means of supplying the region with men. Let us not forget that on February 24, 2022, when Putin attacked Ukraine, nothing changed in Transnistria.

Ukraine’s invasion has undermined Transnistria’s economy and security.

Florent Parmentier

Russian diplomacy replied that it would “Think carefully” Request of Tiraspol. If Moscow has no bellicose intentions, what are its intentions?

In the medium term, the Duma (Russian parliament – editor’s note) could take the first step by formally recognizing Transnistria’s independence, but without Vladimir Putin declaring it. This would be a way to put pressure on Moldova, where elections will be held next November, while retaining it status quo. Moscow has been using Tiraspol to blackmail Moldova for thirty years. In this case, Maia Sandu wants a second term and clearly wants to join the EU. So the message from Moscow is as follows: “If you continue with Maya Sandu, we will recognize the independence of Transnistria.” In 2008, when President Medvedev recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

But in the near future, Tiraspol and Moscow aim to convince public opinion and Transnistria’s elite. The invasion of Ukraine undermined the economy and security of this small separatist entity. So we appeal to the great Russian protector, calm the social unrest. In other words, Moscow is trying to regain control diplomatically, failing to do so militarily.

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How did the Ukrainian war weaken Transnistria?

Before Ukraine, things were relatively simple. Tiraspol depends on Moscow for its security and Ukraine for its economy. In fact access to the port of Odessa provides it with a gateway to the European market. A kind of very profitable double game for Transnistria. After the Russian attack, access to the European market has become complicated. Since 1992, separatist discourse has been based on the argument that Transnistria is more industrialized than the rest of Moldova. But as Chisinau gets closer to the European Union, its economy becomes more developed, while Transnistria is increasingly isolated. Economy is indeed an important key to understanding the situation.

But the concern is also of a security nature, as the Russian military monopolizes the Ukrainian war. On several occasions, Zelensky’s mob even suggested to Chisinau that it rid itself of pro-Russians from Tiraspol.

Tiraspol football club belongs to the Moldovan league, it became the champion last year too!

Florent Parmentier

And yet, you are sure that armed conflict is not for tomorrow…

Moldovans understood that the solution to this problem could not be military. Since the 1992 war, there has been no death, not a shot fired, between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Moldovans want to continue like this. So they rejected Kiev’s proposals. In reality, there is very little hostility between the residents of Moldova and the residents of Transnistria. I want to remind you that Tiraspol football club is dependent on Moldovan league, it was crowned champion last year! This example is not trivial, it reveals.

Also readIn Transnistria, residents fear being overtaken by neighboring war: a story by Le Figaro’s special correspondent

By attacking Ukraine, Russia pushed it into the hands of the EU and NATO. Don’t Moscow’s discussions with Transnistria risk leading to similar effects?

We will get the answer to this question during the elections in Moldova next November. If Maya Sandu is reappointed, which is on track, the result could actually be Moldova’s integration into the EU. In fact, it would be less difficult for Maia Sandu to get elected as president than to get a majority. There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin will be closely following the results of this election!