Reuters: Venezuela’s sudden political turn may be due to low support for Nicolas Maduro

Pin

February 26, 2024, 9:12 am

According to analysts, pollsters and sources close to the ruling party, the recent U-turn by the Venezuelan government in which it broke with its initial approaches to the United States and the opposition is likely a response to declining support from its traditional base of voters.

By Mayela Armas / Vivian Sequeira / REUTERS

After months of thawing relations with the United States, President Nicolás Maduro’s administration has reversed course in recent weeks. The United Nations human rights office closed, prosecutors ordered the arrest of a prominent activist, and the Supreme Court disqualified the main opposition candidate in this year’s election.

Sources and analysts said the change could be due to declining support for the Maduro government. Local pollster Delphos estimates that 25% of the population consider themselves supporters of the ruling party. A year earlier, support was 30%.

Maduro will bet on “intimidating” activists and protesters to try to repeat the scenario of the 2018 presidential election, when the main opposition parties were left out of the race and the anti-Maduro vote was split, sources close to the ruling party said. .

“If there are elections, he will lose,” a source said, referring to free and fair voting. The Ministry of Communications and Information did not respond to a request for comment.

Maduro held a major prisoner swap with the United States and signed an electoral pact with the opposition. Washington, in response, eased sanctions on the oil, gas and gold sectors, and lifted the ban on trading in Venezuelan bonds.

But the United States reimposed sanctions on the state mining company and warned that relief for the oil sector would not be extended in April unless the main opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, and others were allowed to compete.

So far, the government has denied Machado’s involvement, citing a court decision.

Ricardo Ríos said, “Negotiations bore fruit with the lifting of sanctions for a period of time (…) but internal tensions within the ruling party, as some are close to Russia and others to the United States, are blowing bridges.” , an analyst at consulting firm Poder y Economia in Caracas, citing his research.

The analyst added that some in Maduro’s circle prefer a more “pragmatic” relationship with the United States. Maduro’s decline in popularity may have increased the position of others, such as lawmaker Diosdado Cabello, to side with his traditional allies such as Russia or China.

The Communications Ministry also did not respond to a request for comment on whether there were differences within the ruling party. Senior government officials have long denied the existence of such departments.

“What we are seeing is a reaction from Chavismo hardliners, who believe they have suffered the worst and can withstand the reimposition of sanctions if it means not risking losing power in a semi-competitive election,” one analyst said. , politician and Geoff Ramsey said. Senior member of the Atlantic Council.

less support

The slowdown in the economy and the deterioration of services such as electricity and water have contributed to lower working-class support for the president. Millions of people have migrated since 2015.

There were 4,000 labor protests in 2023, 28% more than in 2022, according to the Social Conflict Monitor. Many of the complaints were from education and health sector employees, who requested a pay adjustment.

“In my family we hoped for negotiations. We were waiting for the government to leave Maria Corina alone,” said Maria Uzcategu, a 40-year-old teacher who lives in the western city of Maracaibo. “The government is playing the fear card,” he added.

“The situation is deteriorating day by day. What we have to do here is change the government,” said Carlos Cristancho, a 78-year-old transporter who lives in the San Cristobal border, where he faces frequent power outages.

As part of efforts to fight inflation, the government has not increased the salaries of public servants since 2022 and instead offered bonuses. Workers earn an average of $40 per month, according to data from Venezuela’s Finance Observatory.

Although the easing of sanctions temporarily boosted government revenues, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has deteriorated significantly since the boom years and production has fallen by 70%.

Maduro and his government have long blamed US sanctions for Venezuela’s financial woes, calling the measures “economic warfare”.

Social investment plans promised for the election year, including reforms to women’s health care, have done little to boost Maduro’s popularity.

A pro-government supporter who appeared on a recent state television broadcast took the opportunity to call for better gas supplies, an unusual display of discontent from a ruling party supporter.

“The government realized that its social base was broken. They don’t have a project that excites popular sectors. They don’t have an oil bonanza to consolidate through clientelism,” said Anderson Sequeira, a political scientist and director of the consulting firm Apolitics. “Then what are you left with? Suppression”.