Republican primaries open, Donald Trump the big favorite

Even if he is the heavy favorite today, Donald Trump is not guaranteed to be President of the United States again in November. We have to go back to the year 2000 to see the winner of the Iowa caucuses occupying the Oval Office a few months later.

• In 2020Donald Trump won the caucuses, but lost the presidential election.
• In 2016, Ted Cruz wins the caucus, but second-place Donald Trump is named the GOP nominee. He wins the presidential election.
• In 2012, Rick Santorum wins the caucus, but runner-up Mitt Romney is named the GOP nominee. He lost the presidential election.
• In 2008, Mike Huckabee wins the caucus, but fourth-place finisher John McCain is named the GOP nominee. He lost the presidential election.
• In 2000George W. Bush won the caucuses and won the presidential election.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris said liberties are “deeply at risk” during a speech commemorating Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday in South Carolina, which coincidentally is the Democratic caucus. Coincides with Iowa.

“Freedom is never truly acquired. It is created and earned in every generation,” she asserted on X, formerly Twitter.

Iowa and its 3 million residents will be represented by 40 delegates at the Republican convention, an ocean drop from the more than 2,400 at stake in the country. But by voting first, Iowa earned a reputation as a “barometer” for candidates eager to get off to a good start on the campaign trail.

“Primaries are long and candidates have to spend a lot of money. If your campaign donors see that they have bet on the wrong horse, they will not hesitate to leave you to bet on another”, for BFMTV .com Olivier Ricomme, Prof. Decrypts American Civilization at Lumière Lyon-2 University.

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“Today marks the beginning of the end of Joe Biden’s presidency,” communicated the GOP (Grand Old Party, or “Grand Old Party”, in French, the Republican Party’s nickname).

In a video slamming the record of the White House’s Democratic tenant, the Republican Party is hoping the Iowa caucuses will help start good momentum so Donald Trump (or one of his rivals) can take over the Oval Office in November.

Iowa Republicans heading into their state caucuses today have immigration as their No. 1 priority, according to a survey conducted for the AP news agency. So the economy can take a back seat.

United States foreign policy, the health care system, abortion rights and energy are also priorities for far fewer respondents, according to the survey.

A last-minute surprise upsets the Republican favorite’s equation: the cold. The entire state has been affected by snowfall and the thermometer is expected to touch -30°C at polling time with icy roads.

Would Donald Trump voters, assured of their candidate’s victory, be motivated to vote under these conditions?

Yesterday, the billionaire appealed to his supporters: “Even if you come to vote and die, it’s worth it.”

Today, Iowa is the first American state to vote in Republican primaries. Here, this very special election is called a caucus. Here’s what you need to know in the video.

At 45, the current governor of Florida already has a long career behind him: a former soldier and lawyer, he also served three terms as an elected member of the House of Representatives.

An ultra-conservative, he has, among other things, banned LGBT and anti-racist presentations in schools, launched a crusade against Disney, which he considers too “woke” and is firmly committed to ‘abortion rights and aid to Ukraine.

“In Iowa, I’ve never seen anything like this.” continued

The latest poll by NBC, referenced in The Atlantic, gives Donald Trump 48% voting intention.

Coincidentally, the Iowa caucuses fall on the same day as Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.

Troubled at the polls, ultra-conservative and far-right Ron DeSantis took the opportunity to quote a figure from the American civil rights movement on his X account: “There’s always time to do what’s right”.

From 7pm local time (2am BST), voters will gather at schools, libraries and fire stations across the mid-western state.

How are the first caucuses going in Iowa starting today? Disclosures with our special correspondent Benoît Belle.

This is his moment. Every four years, the spotlight of the American political scene shines on the small rural state of Iowa in the Midwest. which initiates the presidential primaries For over fifty years. The Republican Party is holding this Monday, January 15 His first “caucus”, a sort of neighborhood meeting

In which supporters vote for their favorite candidate in the race for the White House.

Iowa and its 3 million residents will be represented by 40 delegates at the Republican convention, an ocean drop from the more than 2,400 at stake in the country. But by voting first, Iowa gained a reputation as a “barometer” for candidates eager to get campaigns off to a good start.

Welcome to this live broadcast dedicated to the Iowa caucuses, the first round of the Republican Party primaries in the United States.

BFMTV.com is with you throughout the night to follow the results. First trends are expected from 7pm local time or 2am in Paris.