Replacing Joe Biden is nearly impossible for Democrats, unless he steps aside

From our correspondent in the United States,

The White House emergency unit is active. Overwhelmed by a special prosecutor’s report that described him as “an amiable old man with a bad memory,” Joe Biden and his team have stepped up to the plate in recent days to defend his age and mental acuity, nine months before the Nov. 5 presidential election. And a potential rematch against Donald Trump.

If some on the right are convinced that the outgoing Democratic Party will be replaced by Michelle Obama or California Governor Gavin Newsom, such a scenario is “unlikely,” said Doug Haye, a former spokesman for the Republican Party. Unless Biden himself decides to defect or is unable to become the nominee, the rules put in place for the Democratic primary make a coup nearly impossible.

It was too late to change it through the primary

When the outgoing president is the candidate, the primary usually counts for nothing. Despite Biden’s troubles, his only real challenger, elected Dean Phillips, can’t get off the ground. Even in New Hampshire, where Joe Biden’s name was not on the ballot, Phillips did not exceed 20% while the White House tenant finished at 63.8% of those who wrote their names in their hand. In South Carolina, which officially opened the ball, Joe Biden was popular, collecting 96% of the vote.

If another candidate wants to take the plunge, it’s too late. Last date for submission of application has passed in 80% states. If he keeps up his pace, Joe Biden could have secured the nomination by mid-March, requiring an Aug. 19-22 Chicago convention to crown him — an absolute majority of delegates — with an electoral vote of sorts.

Rules for Preventing Mutiny in Convention

Prior to the 1960s, primaries were held in only ten states. The inauguration of the candidate was a matter of internal cooking among the “insiders” of the parties at the convention. Technically, unlike the system among Democrats, among Republicans, delegates are not absolutely compelled to vote for the candidate chosen by the people. But they must “respect in good conscience” the verdict of the ballot boxes.

“The primaries were designed to make it easier for Biden to be nominated. There is no mechanism to block it, and the DNC (Democratic National Committee, responsible for leading the party) works for Biden,” Doug Haye explains. DNC boss Jame Harrison is also close to the American president. Beginning in 2020, unelected “superdelegates,” who can tip the scales in the event of a near-war, can only vote in the second round of voting if a candidate does not have an absolute majority of delegates.

What if Biden gives up — or is unable to — to run?

Judge Doug Haye said “the only scenario in which Joe Biden won’t be the nominee is if he drops out, and that’s highly unlikely.” According to observers, the American president believes he is best placed to defeat Donald Trump, and he thought long and hard before taking the plunge. But when three out of four Americans consider him “too old” to serve a second term, he has no good solution at his disposal: his lieutenants “can put him before the public more often, but that is a real risk », the judge Hey. In recent weeks, Joe Biden has multiplied slips of the tongue, evoking the 2021 talks with Francois Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl, who have been dead for years, instead of Macron and Merkel.

If Biden, at age 81, were unable to run — in the event of death or illness — rules exist to replace him. If this had happened before the convention, the delegates would have to choose a new champion. After August, the DNC is expected to call a special meeting to vote.

In this scenario, there is no guarantee that Kamala Harris will be chosen, even if she is serving as president, if Biden is forced to cede the White House to her before November. The party will no doubt conduct an express poll before taking a decision. Currently, five names hold the ropes in case of disaster: California Governor Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky Governor Andy Bescher.