Decryption – Weak tax revenue dented the ministry’s expectations. The administration sent the first warning to ministers’ offices in early December. Opposition cites lack of information from Parliament.
It is a play in three acts. At the end of December, Parliament votes on a 2024 finance law that aims for a (very) modest recovery of French public finances, with a public deficit of 4.4% of GDP compared to 4.9% in 2023. A month and a half later, Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister, appeared on the 8pm news to revise downwards the economic growth forecast for 2024 (to 1% compared to the 1.4% previously expected) and cut budget spending flows by 10 billion euros. In the process, Thomas Cazeneuve, his minister of public accounts, cites disappointing tax revenues and warns that the 2025 budget will need to find 20 billion in new savings. Last Tuesday, finally, the INSEE ax fell: 2023, the public deficit has reached 5.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), much higher than the expected 4.9%.
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