Palestinian State Creation: A New Israeli-American Discord?

“Learn how to say no”. This mantra of personal development has recently found an unusual resonance: “An Israeli prime minister must be able to say no to our best friends”, declared Thursday January 18 Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the United States of America without naming the United States.

At the center of the disagreements, the creation of a Palestinian state. “Without this, it will be impossible to achieve real security,” the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, reiterated at the Davos Economic Forum on Wednesday, January 17.

Bringing back a semblance of “security” to the Middle East is a question of credibility for American policemen: a war between Israel and Hamas fears a more tangible regional flare-up.

After a thirty-minute conversation between the American president and Benjamin Netanyahu, a White House spokesman reported on Friday that Joe Biden still believes in the possibility and possibility of a “Palestinian state”.

But for this, Israel must have security control over the entire region west of Jordan. “This is a necessary condition, which contradicts the idea of ​​(Palestinian) sovereignty,” the Israeli prime minister added, clarifying that he had told the Americans this openly.

“With all due respect to them (the United States), we no longer have a star on the American flag,” ironically, two weeks ago, far-right Israeli Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gvir said that “the United States is our best friend.”

A solid friendship: According to a report by the US Congress, Israel has received US$260 billion since its birth, making the Jewish state the largest recipient of the greenback since the end of World War II.

How long can Israel say “no” to America and what are the implications for the Palestinian question? Decryption with David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory of the Jean Jaurès Foundation.

France 24 : Are we witnessing a turning point in Israeli-American relations? ?

David Khalfa: The Israeli-American bilateral relationship is called “special” because it is based both on shared values, but also on strategic interests. However, relations between Americans and Israelis have never been harmonious.

It is a passionate relationship between two friends and companions, but one that has experienced periods of tension. These tensions are also old. We can easily go back to the presidency of Eisenhower, then Johnson, Carter or more recently Obama. Even Donald Trump, despite being described by Netanyahu as “Israel’s best friend”, did not hesitate last October to describe Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, as a “stupid” or to criticize Prime Minister Israel. 7 October Massacre.

Israeli-American relations are currently going through yet another upheaval. It’s not an open crisis at this point, for one very simple reason: Joe Biden (who is Catholic, editor’s note) defines himself as a Zionist, and his support for Israel is anchored in his personal history and politics. His support for the Jewish state, which is facing a multi-front war, is not thanks, but still, to Netanyahu, with whom the relationship is complicated and stormy.

See also thisThe Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Return of the Two-State Solution

The creation of a Palestinian state is promoted by Washington and Riyadh, and is also part of the Israeli ruling class. Can Benjamin Netanyahu stop it? ?

In the short term, yes. Benjamin Netanyahu will do absolutely anything to stay in power, and his strategy is very clearly to wage war as long as possible, because he knows he is unpopular and surrounded by business. So he tries to buy time by dressing up as a war leader, hoping to curry favor with public opinion. Netanyahu is a shrewd and calculating politician, but he is weakened by his reliance on his Faustian alliance with the far right, which opposes any possibility of resolving the conflict in the form of a two-state solution.

Moreover, he is old on borrowed time and sooner or later will have to relinquish the reins of power. Beyond the reflection of the national unity maintained by the war and the trauma of October 7, the Israeli population has largely withdrawn its support. Polls show his popularity is declining, including among moderate-right voters.

But a political offer from the Gulf petromonarchies that paves the way for the normalization of their relations with Israel through significant progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state will survive Benjamin Netanyahu. And more so, because the leaders at the helm of the petromonarchies are young and likely to be in charge for decades to come. Finally, it must be added that Israel’s political landscape will change drastically after Netanyahu’s departure. The center, embodied by Benny Gantz, must take up the torch and send the right and far right back into opposition.

What about the United States? By rejecting the Democratic administration’s proposals, is Benjamin Netanyahu betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election? ?

Sure, but it’s a risky bet. Because the relationship between the highly volatile Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump is now very fresh. The former US president believes that Benjamin Netanyahu betrayed him by recognizing Joe Biden’s election victory in November 2020.

Then, remember that the $14.5 billion in additional emergency aid promised to Israel by Joe Biden still hasn’t been approved by the Senate, because Republicans oppose it. And this, for purely political reasons that have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but everything to do with the polarization of American political life.

Any Democratic proposal is an excuse for systematic obstruction by Republicans, even if it means prioritizing their immediate political interest in the United States’ strategic alliance with Israel. Conversely, if Donald Trump comes to power, it is likely that Democrats will adopt a similar strategy of systematic obstruction.

Could Washington’s $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel be in question each year? ?

In addition to being a tenant of the White House, there is a pro-Israel tradition within the Pentagon, with most American strategists believing that an alliance with Israel is primarily in America’s interest.

But if this aid is not called into question, the conditions for its approval become complicated, as we witness the politicization of American military support for the Jewish state, even though the issue has thus far eluded a real debate. In America.

A trend toward isolationism on the Republican side, and progressivism on the Democratic side: In the medium term, developments in American politics will lead to greater concessions to Israel if the country wishes to retain a high degree of American diplomatic and military support.

Especially since the Israelis depend more than ever on this military aid, especially since they have bet on high technology while the conflicts in urban areas are voracious in all kinds of artillery ammunition, including “low tech”, such as tank shells, which is Not manufactured in Israel.

This gives the Americans an advantage over Israel’s conduct of the war. The establishment of a humanitarian corridor in Gaza, an increase in humanitarian aid provided to Gaza, and a reduction in Israeli military action in the Palestinian enclave were achieved under pressure from the US administration, which Benjamin Netanyahu wants the population to consider its own.