New Hampshire: How DeSantis’ retirement affects Haley-Trump duel

With the departure of Ron DeSantis from the race to become the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for the November elections, the Republican primaries have been minimized and voters now face a bipolar choice: Nikki Haley or Donald Trump.

This A Simple Affair “Between a Man and a Woman” -As Haley summed up on Sunday after learning of DeSantis’ departure, Donald Trump being the person or ‘fellow’, as she put it in English – doesn’t mean things will be easy for the former South Carolina governor and ex-ambassador. to the UN.

The transfer of votes from DeSantis to Trump is logical if one considers that the governor, when he began his campaign last year with better patronage, sold himself as “Trump, without the drama,” implying that the differences with him were aesthetic. and were of forms. , rather than substance or political platform.

in fact, The governor immediately endorsed the former president while announcing his retirement

. Trump accepted that, and that seemed to end the conflict between the former president, who believed DeSantis’ aspirations were “treasonous.”

In the specific case of New Hampshire, DeSantis was consistently below 10% of respondents, so his supporters won’t move the needle much in Haley’s favor, even if they fold heavily in his favor.

While the race was a three-way affair, Haley’s supporters said he was hoping for a good showing in the first primaries of the season (after the Iowa caucuses), placing him well in second place.

That second place is already assured and what remains to be seen is how much of a difference there can be between Trump, who is presumed to be the winner.

Her alternative lies more with undecided voters and independents who are sold on the idea that Trump (like Democratic re-election candidate Joe Biden) is a thing of the past and the prospect of a new dynamic for the GOP and the country.

In any case, regardless of the result in New Hampshire, everything indicates that Haley will continue to fight at least until the so-called Super Tuesday on March 5, when dozens of states have their primaries, including Texas and electoral heavyweights. California..

Before that, elections will be held in Nevada and South Carolina. The latter is a very symbolic state, as it is the one of which she was governor.

The specialized site 538’s polling average gives Trump roughly 61% support (10 points more than he had at the start of the year) compared to 25% for Haley (a more modest increase of 5 points in a month) and 9% for DeSantis, now out of the race.

Some speculate that Haley will not risk the humiliation of such a crushing defeat in her home state and will follow in the footsteps of DeSantis, Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott, who dropped out last time. Mass.

But the former governor assured ABC News on Sunday that she does not plan to abandon New Hampshire and will continue to campaign in her home state.

“We’re going home to South Carolina (…). We’re going to travel from end to end of a state that we love so much. We’re not going to back down so soon,” Haley said when asked if she would if Trump Get her out and retire. Ten points over their own manor.

For now, things are the same as they were in February 2023, when Haley became the first person to challenge Trump in the primaries.

Then, few believed that the former governor had the necessary structure to take on Trump, even at a time when the former president’s candidacy was not raised to the level it is today, when his natural ascendancy in the Republican Party is strengthened by various organizations. The legal cases that exist against him have been successfully presented as evidence of political persecution against him.