Nationalist parties could come out on top in 9 states in European elections

a”Sharp right turn” With less than five months to go before the European elections (June 6 to 9, 2024), the trends are becoming clear. In a large projection study published this Thursday, January 24, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank of the European Union It predicts spectacular gains by nationalist right-wing parties in various member states. This progress will logically be accompanied by a loss of seats for the progressive and centrist groups, which currently hold a majority in the European Parliament.

The two authors of this study collected the most recent opinion polls in each EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous years. The model predicts the share of the vote each national party will win in the 2024 European Parliament elections and calculates how many seats they are likely to win.

Identity and Democracy Group, a Third Force in Parliament?

Thus, nationalist right-wing parties from nine member states could come out on top next June: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. They can also come second or third in nine other countries: Germany, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Spain, Latvia, Portugal, Romania and Sweden. The radical right-wing group Identity and Democracy (ID), of which National Rally is a part, could thus increase from 58 to 98 seats, establishing itself as a third force in parliament.

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Because on the contrary, the three major centrist groups of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew (RE) may continue their decline, having lost seats during the last two elections. Currently, these three parties have 420 MPs out of 705. After the elections, they may reduce their numbers to 390. According to the ECFR, the EPP will limit losses with five fewer seats. The S&D will lose 10 seats, while Renew will be cut by 15 deputies.

At the same time, the Greens will also lose seats (currently 61 against 71), but the left will gain slightly, going from 38 to 44. On the right, the group of European Conservatives and Reformists could gain 18 deputies (against 85). 67) and non-registered people will see their numbers decrease (from 51 to 42). These estimates reflect a long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and increasing support for extremist parties.

A change in the balance of coalitions

Finally, “Super Coalition» (EPP, S&D, RE) will have only 54% of seats compared to 60% currently. Given the traditionally average level of electoral coordination among the various groups in the European Parliament, it can sometimes be difficult for these parties to gain a majority. Unlike a potential right-wing coalition, a potential left-wing coalition will also lose value. Naturally, these predictions include some uncertainty, linked to the relative reliability of opinion polls, but also the uncertainty of some elected MPs as to which political groups they will join.

According to the ECFR, this paradigm shift could have several consequences on the EU political agenda. If the new composition of the parliament, initially, should not affect the aid to Ukraine, for example, the fact that the grand centrist coalition will probably be less dominant than before may influence some issues such as economic and financial freedom, environment. , or immigration and asylum policies.