“Mr Le Maire’s budget debate has gone on too long”, a turn of the screw that undermines the majority

“We are more concerned about our budgetary difficulties than the vote on support for Ukraine. » This, at the end of the week, was the state of mind of this executive with the majority of the president. However, the bilateral security agreement signed between Paris and Kiev on February 26 will be held in the legislature on Tuesday. The debate promises to be alive. In particular, because the opposition, which Emmanuel Macron received on Thursday on this subject, will not fail to condemn, once again, his comments on the possibility of joining …

“We are more concerned about our budgetary difficulties than the vote on support for Ukraine. » This, at the end of the week, was the state of mind of this executive with the majority of the president. However, the bilateral security agreement signed between Paris and Kiev on February 26 will be held in the legislature on Tuesday. The debate promises to remain alive. Especially, because the opposition, which Emmanuel Macron received on Thursday on this subject, will not fail to condemn, once again, his comments on the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine. A subject that the head of state “excludes ” do not want to. However, even in his camp, this short sentence was received badly: “strategic ambiguity speaks less, does not reveal one’s intentions”, this Renaissance deputy regrets.

It prevents. If this security agreement, which, in 2024, plans to provide “up to 3 billion euros” in additional military aid to Ukraine, with a vote on uncertain stakes, the temperature should rise in the hemicycle – one more … -, another cloud in the Macronist sky. have appeared. In this case, deterioration of public finances associated with a slowdown in growth.

“It’s an option”

While the 2024 budget – voted in 2023 – has already recorded savings of 16 billion euros, in mid-February, the government cut an additional 10 billion. But it will be only one step. “At a group meeting last week, Bruno Le Maire announced to us that he is planning a revised finance bill in a few months,” says one participant in the exchange. Since then, the Bercy tenant has moderated its advertising somewhat, doubling it with a capital “Jo.” “Nothing has been decided,” says the government. It is an option. Everything will depend on how the situation develops. » Start with growth. But if it stays around 1% and the tax revenue will be less volatile.

“Mr Le Maire’s budgetary charade has gone on long enough”.

One certainty, on Thursday, in the National Assembly, Thomas Cazeneuve, Budget Minister, indicated that in 2025, we have to continue on this path and achieve at least 20 billion euros in savings. Prove that now is not the time for optimism. But, at this stage, it is above all the prospect of this reformed finance bill giving Macronist deputies a cold sweat. “If we go this way, we run a great risk,” observed this Renaissance parliamentarian. “First,” he continues, “because 49.3 would be mandatory; then, because there is nothing that says the LR will not present a censure proposal that could pass. »

Honesty?

While control of public finances is a mantra of the right, it will attack the brutality of the budget. What the LR Senator of Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Max Brisson, confirms: “This budget was voted in December and already, while we are giving up 10 billion euros of credit, we are announcing a draft to amend the financial law, it Meaning this was the budget. Built on foundations that were not sincere. However, we warned the government, we told it that its growth forecast was not good, we made austerity proposals. But the answer we got was his contempt. » So, can decent people run into a censure motion? “It will depend on our fellow deputies because this possibility does not exist in the Senate. But we have many reasons to express dissatisfaction. » And to drive the point home: “Mr. Le Maire’s budgetary conversation has gone on for a long time. »

Another difficulty for the government: if this reform finance bill is to be imposed, when should it be prepared? Knowing that the Europeans will take place on June 9 and the Olympic Games will begin on July 26, the shooting window has shortened. On the government side, there is no question of undermining the Olympics. To launch such a sequence during the European elections, again, would be playing with fire. Above all, this renaissance parliamentarian reminds us, “The voters of RN and LFI vote for national reasons, not for the European people. »

Even if everyone in the president’s majority agrees to admit that the next fiscal texts “will be tough,” we contest any turn toward austerity. “Countries that have practiced it have cut pensions, salaries and public services, we are not there”, we explain within the government where we plead for “budgetary seriousness”. An expression that has a bright future ahead of it…