Ludovic Marin – Editing by AFP/HuffPost
Despite their apparent closeness, Emmanuel Macron and Lula are far from fully aligned on many topics that will be discussed by the two men in the coming days.
International – Aligning viewpoints, a mission that Macron and Lula will have to undertake hand in hand. Expected in Brazil for a three-day state visit starting this Tuesday, March 26, Emmanuel Macron will have a lot to do with his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Starting with warming relations between the two countries after the chaotic departure of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
More relaxed today, relations between Paris and Brasilia are nevertheless under pressure from burning international issues that make Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Brazil as expectedly fragile. It must be said that recent months have revealed the contrasting visions of the two heads of state, whether it is the war in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza or the deadlocked EU-Mercosur agreement. And still not approved… to Brazil’s great dismay.
· Climate and Biodiversity
It is undoubtedly on this point that the two heads of state will have the least difficulty in agreeing. Because if we put aside the notable absence of Emmanuel Macron during the summit for the Amazon organized last summer, both men share the desire to preserve the green lungs of the planet at any cost, without stopping the Brazilian economy.
” Under Bolsonaro, the EU became Brazil’s enemy, so it’s a return to Lula’s proximity. Especially since the drastic reduction in deforestation observed in the past year favors this convergence. But Lula is waiting for money, he is waiting for a gesture from France », observes for HuffPost Jean-Louis Martin, economist and researcher associated with IFRI. However, it shows the first limitation: “ Lula’s virtuous ambitions on an ecological level are antithetical to the idea of robust growth to reduce poverty and inequality.
Carolina Grassi, a Brazilian doctoral student at the Center for International and Community Studies and Research at Aix-Marseille University and an expert on the Amazon, sees the visit as an opportunity to concretely demonstrate Brazil’s efforts, particularly in terms of the bioeconomy. ” Macron will travel through the Amazon to the city of Belém, which will host COP 30she notes. This is a strong gesture and a good way to prepare the role of France for this event”.
· War in Ukraine
On the one hand, the French president has never hidden his support for Kiev, especially in recent weeks. Lula, on the other hand, defends his long-aligned position tooth and nail, holding Ukraine as responsible as Russia, even though Brasilia initially condemned Russian aggression.
An observation that inspired Jean-Louis Martin with the following reflection: “ Lula sees himself as a great compromiser. But by asking Ukraine to hand over Crimea, he lost a lot of credibility. This is a direct result of the mediating role he has given himself as a spokesperson for the Global South.”
He adds that it would not be surprising to see Lula “choose his path as a democratically elected political leader.” Double standards of westerners “Western conditions are more” Very poorly received in the South, and not just in Brazil », where the war in Ukraine ultimately had only a modest impact.
For her part, Carolina Grassi believes that “ Lula has every interest in discussing international issues with Macron despite their differences. We must not lose sight of Brazil’s goal of one day securing its seat on the UN Security Council.”she observes.
· Conflict in Gaza
As in Ukraine, President Lula develops his differences over the Israel-Hamas war. In mid-February, Brazil’s president provoked a diplomatic crisis with Israel by accusing the Jewish state of Genocide » -Similar to the Holocaust in the Gaza Strip. way to do” surprising » For both researcher and doctoral student. They are also surprised” clumsiness » by Lula on this topic. ” But fundamentally, it is still an expression of global South resentment », comments Jean-Louis Martin.
Carolina Grassi also explains that Brazil is more detached from the subject because it cultivates a very different relationship from France on the conflict in the Middle East. But the status of the two heads of state will not prevent them from talking about defense and security: “ The conservation aspect of this visit is the most important. It is a symbolic way to resume the military partnership started in 2008. France has every interest in selling military equipment to Brazil, if only for border security. The largest French land border is in Brazil ».
· EU/Mercosur Agreement
On this last point, the views of Lula and Emmanuel Macron are more opposed than ever. With the French farmers’ crisis over, new negotiations for a free trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur Alliance (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) now appear to be at an impasse, largely due to France.
Lula, who had hoped for ratification of the agreement before the end of 2023, also seemed resigned when he indicated that he had “ Coming to terms with France has always been difficult “, his given” Protectionism ” ” These are wasted years on a subject that will most likely never come to fruition. », the researcher concludes, which ” a mess After several decades of negotiations.
in front of, ” Macron cannot go back after the events of February. In the short term, the most annoying thing is to stick with this contract. Moreover, Brazilians still pretend to believe in it but resignation prevails.e,” reports Jean-Louis Martin. On this topic, Elysée assures that the agreement should not be the subject of negotiations in Brazil, preferring that the visit focus on what unites the two countries.
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