Kiev warns of new Russian strategies to overwhelm its air defenses

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) — A deadly strategy is unfolding in the snowy skies of Ukraine.

Russia began the new year with a barrage of airstrikes, including the heaviest missile strikes since the start of the war, as Ukraine struggles to deal with a growing threat with its limited supply of Western defense systems.

Russia’s January offensive has used the full range of its aerial arsenal: cruise missiles, ballistic missiles near the Russian-Ukrainian border, hypersonic missiles and slow drones, all sometimes used to hit a single target. , told CNN from Kiev.

International analysts say the months-accumulated avalanche of Russian missiles is intended to overwhelm limited Ukrainian anti-missile defenses.

This approach has had some success. According to Ukrainian authorities, the country managed to shoot down only 18 of the 51 missiles fired on January 8.

A new strategy has also been implemented.

Some of the changes are simple: Russia has begun painting its Iranian-made drones black, camouflaging them against the night sky.

Others are more sophisticated: The Russians switched the engine exhaust of some drones from the rear to the front, in an attempt to confuse anti-aircraft batteries using thermal sights, members of the Ukrainian unit told CNN.

Ukrainian media reports that jet-powered drones are replacing slower, propeller-driven Russian models, so authorities have acknowledged that this is a threat that is on their radar.

Speaking on national television, Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said the jet-powered version of the Iranian Shahed drones favored by Moscow would act “like a mini cruise missile.”

They may have a lower payload, but a much higher cruising speed, perhaps more than 500 kilometers per hour, he said, which would make them more difficult to shoot down. Ukrainian authorities have not yet confirmed whether the drone was used in Ukraine.

Every takedown is a victory

On a frozen field outside Kiev, soldiers practice with mobile air defense trucks, ready to fire within minutes of launch.

Its Soviet-designed heavy machine gun is crude, but combined with a thermal sight and a tablet that displays an image of that sight, two centuries of technology coming together on a flatbed truck, could be effective against drones, the US military told CNN. Senior Sergeant Vitaly Yasinsky, squadron commander of the Ukrainian Separate Presidential Brigade.

“Earlier they used to fly in a single path, but now they zigzag. Drones can fly, then circle, glide, descend completely, rise half a kilometer and then quickly descend. Now they are very manipulative and should be destroyed on sight,” Yasinski said of Irani Shahed.

On a cloudy night, rescuers may be forced to use their hearing rather than their sight to aim, hearing the telltale hum of Shahed’s engine.

But it’s small, mobile units like Yasinsky’s that Ukraine is counting on to protect civilians and key infrastructure, especially from slow-flying drones.

Located in a network of advanced Western missile defense systems, such as the American Patriot or German IRIS-T batteries, better prepared to counter fast Russian missiles, these small teams provide defenses with a cheaper and more abundant force. Ukraine from the sky.

Ukrainian air defense soldiers told CNN they opened boxes of hand-held Stinger anti-aircraft missiles donated by the West that date to the Afghan Mujahideen’s war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, decades before some of them were even born.

But they remain grateful for weapons.

In videos of Ukrainian air defense units shooting down drones or missiles, the joy in the soldiers’ voices is almost childish.

Each effect is likely to contribute to saving Ukrainian lives or infrastructure and depleting Russia’s resources.

In January, US officials disclosed that Russia had used North Korean ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukrainian cities, a sign of pressure on Moscow’s arsenals and domestic production of long-range weapons.

Ukrainian authorities continue to analyze debris from the latest attack to determine the origin of the missiles.

Protection to the limit

Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kiev-based Razumkov Center think tank, told CNN that the latest series of Russian attacks were “very well planned.”

The deadly strikes were preceded by swarms of drones and personal missiles on various routes, sacrificing pawns to map Ukrainian defenses and weak spots, he said.

“Now it is the defense industry facilities that are in the spotlight. And although it is not officially admitted, a significant part of these missiles hit their targets,” he also noted the effectiveness of each interceptor missile fired against incoming Russian missiles. high

The Ukrainian air defense operates “at the limit of its capabilities,” Melnyk said, often hitting more than 70% of its targets and sometimes all of them.

Stopping more missiles would require more interceptor missile batteries, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday his country “severely lacks.” Ukraine is currently unable to produce modern air defense systems with its partners, he said.

But to prevent a surge of Russian fire, Ukraine needs to target Moscow’s batteries across the border, a difficult challenge given Kiev’s limited access to its own long-range missile or artillery systems.

“Russia is learning its lesson,” Melnyk said, sending missiles where he knew they could not be intercepted.

Civilian death

Ukrainian presidential adviser Podolyak told CNN that he believed Russia’s airstrikes had added a “genocide component” compared to last winter. In his view, civilian casualties are now the priority in Russian attacks on major cities, he said. Russia has repeatedly denied attacking civilians.

Images of Kiev commuters crowding subways during airstrikes in early January evoked painful memories of last winter’s Russian airstrikes.

A small number of Ukrainians were killed in the January attack, but the country is suffering the consequences of the Dec. 29 death of 33 people in Kiev in an attack that destroyed 100 homes and 45 skyscrapers, according to Ukraine’s president.

In response, Zelensky promised to “return the war” to Russia.

Despite the joy his comrades take in neutralizing Russian attacks from the air, “Smeta,” a soldier in an air defense unit outside Kiev, feels the pain of every missile he fails to shoot down on the ground.

“The most painful thing is that they hit civilians, homes, kindergartens,” he told CNN. “This does not conform to the laws of war or human morality. It is immoral.”

— Victoria Butenko contributed to this report.