An appeal for help launched in Moscow by authorities in the separatist Moldovan region has raised the specter of a Ukrainian-style scenario. But the reality is more nuanced.
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It is a thin strip of land to the east Moldova, on the border with Ukraine. The region, populated by 465,000 inhabitants, most of whom are mainly Russian-speaking Eastern Slavs, has its own capital, its own government and its own currency. A self-proclaimed republic that, after breaking away in 1992 after a brief civil war, maintains an ambivalent relationship with the legitimate government, sometimes marked by sudden fever.
The latest came on Wednesday, February 28. assembled in an extraordinary congress, MPs from Transnistria convened the Russian Parliament has Implement measures for protection His territory against » Unprecedented threats of economic, socio-humanitarian and military-political nature » From Moldova. Separatist President Vadim Krasnoselsky went further, ” A policy of genocide “, through economic pressure, ” Physical », legal and linguistic. Russian diplomacy quickly responded, ensuring that it had ” priority “there” Protection » Residents of Transnistria, adding that Moscow will ” Check carefully » Request from local authorities. Without further details.
That’s all it took to give rise to a Ukrainian-style scenario. ” The emphasis of the calls on the protection of Transnistrian rights and freedoms is intended to establish the conditions for the Kremlin to apply the same narrative to prevent “discrimination” and “genocide” against “Russians” in Moldova, as the Kremlin did before and during the invasion. Ukraine “, Thus arose the Institute for the Study of WarAn American think tank specializing in defense and foreign affairs issues.
In the short term invasion is impossible
The rhetoric is indeed reminiscent of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2022 after 2014, which Vladimir Putin used to attack Ukraine. The similarities between Moldova and Ukraine are numerous. Like Ukraine, Moldova today is a former Soviet republic led by a president who wants to bring his country closer to the European Union, but which currently does not benefit from any protection – neither from the EU nor from NATO. Like Donbas, Transnistria is populated by a Russian-speaking majority whom Moscow considers “patriots”.
The comparison ends there. Because unlike eastern Ukraine, there is no territorial continuity between the Moldovan separatist enclave and Russia. It is therefore impossible to transport troops or weapons there by land until the Odessa region is captured. ” But opening a front here would force Russia to disband her troops, Thomas Merle, doctor of political geography points out. So, as long as he is stuck in the East, he has no interest in opening a new front here. »Moscow cannot count its roughly 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria for over 30 years as part of its “ peacekeeping operations ” From this point of view, a short-term invasion cannot be imagined.
Above all, relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol have largely normalized. ” There are cultural cooperation agreements between the two institutions, recognition agreements that allow, for example, young people who started their studies at the University of Tiraspol to continue at Chisinau, with diplomas that are more or less valid. Ultimately, it is pragmatism that dominates », notes Thomas Merle. ” At the economic, political or sporting level, both sides have a form of accommodation, Support Florent Parmentier, Secretary General of the Science Poe Political Research Center (Sevipoff). Every day, thousands of Transnistrians come to work in Chisinau. And the first club of the Moldovan Football Championship is Sheriff Tiraspol; It is hard to imagine that two organizations that play football every Sunday could suddenly go to war. »
economic reasons
By launching this appeal to Russia, Tiraspol is actually trying to force Chisinau to abandon the customs duties imposed on imports from Transnistria, from which it was free until then and which creates a serious drawback for its already weakened economy. Through the war in Ukraine. . ” If it can no longer trade with Ukraine as easily as before, it is forced to turn to the European market through Moldova and therefore to respect its standards, which contributes to weakening its budget. », referring to Florent Parmentier. The issue is also one of security, notes geographer Thomas Merle: “ Transnistria’s ethnic composition is about 40% Moldovans, 35% Russians, and 28% Ukrainians, risking conflict fragmentation in Ukraine. An appeal to Russia is a way to unite the population. »
For Moscow, which the Western chancelleries accuse of being in the maneuver, it is a question of preventing any integration of Moldova with the European Union. ” Russia has relied on Transnistria to control all of Moldova for over 30 years », observes Florent Parmentier from Savipoff. Already in 2006, during an internationally unrecognized referendum, 97% of the population of Transnistria voted to join the Russian Federation, without further action. ” Moscow has no interest in recognizing Transnistria’s independence, because once it does, it will have no means of coercion. », warns Thomas Merle.
But over time, this liver can lose its effectiveness. Because Transnistria, once the economic engine of Moldova thanks to its industrial activity, now has a GDP per capita about half that of the rest of the country, despite being one of the poorest in Europe. ” If at the economic level, the Transnistrian population had every interest in secession 30 years ago, today it is the opposite. », considers Thomas Merle. The question of energy remains. The separatist enclave continues to control Moldova, supplying 90% of its electricity that it produces using gas offered by Russia.
Despite repeated attempts at destabilization, Moldovan President Maia Sandu, a candidate for re-election next November, is determined to lead her country towards European integration. Will he succeed in taking Transnistria with him? Then we will undoubtedly have to deal with Russia.
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