West warned for weeks in 2021 and 2022. If Russia sends its troops into Ukraine, it will see a collapse, as Joe Biden pointedly said, “ Sanctions never seen before ” In just a few months, the country has become the most sanctioned country on Earth. But in two years, Moscow has adapted, always looking for new ways to avoid retaliation. Central Asia, in particular, has become a huge reshipment platform like Kyrgyzstan. .
From our special correspondent in Bishkek,
Osh market after Dordoi markets in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. In one, trucks maneuver through aisles of containers as far as the eye can see; In another, piles several meters high of already packed bales. In both cases, there are many military equipment shops.
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Shoes, clothes, backpacks, pharmacy, small arms… the offer is varied and of high quality. There are all-purpose uniforms, and some with the very characteristic fabric of the Kremlin military. About the latter, a seller who very conspicuously carries the tricolor flag of Russia on his bag remarks eloquently: “ They come from different workshops and production sites from Kyrgyzstan and China. Yes, it says “Russia” on the jackets, but that’s about it. It is intended for the local market, for example for workers such as building caretakers. “, he said.
Kyrgyz building guards, mass purchasers of military uniforms bearing the “Russia” logo, had an explanation, minimum, something surprising. And this is not the only sector of the economy with surprising performance. Logistics in Kyrgyzstan has seen its turnover skyrocket in the past two years.
A quick tour of the Smart Logistics company, along with its director of operations, confirms this. Vladimir Soloviev proudly gives us a guided tour of the rapidly expanding company, which is preparing to build a second warehouse on the grounds of a former Soviet candy factory. In total, it covers an area of 8 hectares, whose warehouse capacity today reaches 25,000 square meters. The third building is brand new and Vladimir Soloviev is very proud of it with a touch of lyricism.
” We want to leave a mark in the history of our country’s development Which will take the country to a qualitatively different level. Because there is nothing like that yet », he says, in the alley leading from there. ” It was built and launched last year in February 2023, and its occupancy rate in April was less than 90% of what it is now. »
In the warehouse shown to RFI, bottles of all kinds of mineral water, Pepsi and Coca-Cola, hygiene products, all are placed in large shelves under a ceiling height of about fifteen meters. , especially thanks to the automated management of stocks and staff working hours. A screen in the warehouse also details the top 10 best employees of the month.
” In 2022, we started this project. During this period, we were not exceeding 80 to 85,000 tonnes of stock per year, Vladimir Soloviev explains. Thanks to the establishment of this space and the growth of our partners, we have reached 260,000 tons per year. » In two years of war, the volume processed has therefore multiplied by three and a half. And here, too, is the explanation given: “ Everything is done with the local market in mind. »
Is this really possible? It is obviously impossible to say about this particular company. On the other hand, in Russia, on supermarket shelves and on their online sites, we find Coca-Cola and Pepsi labeled. Originally from Kyrgyzstan “The country only has a Coca-Cola factory, not Pepsi. This trade is not restricted, but it says a lot about the new trade routes born from the new situation of sanctions. According to figures from the IESEG Global Advisory, between the third quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2023, the EU Exports increased by 190% to Armenia, 349% to Uzbekistan and 621% to Kyrgyzstan.
“ This is the norm in the Eurasian Economic Union », explains Kubat Rakhimov. “ That is to say, goods entering the Russian market through Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan end up and the price is different. » In other words, the more, the end consumer pays for longer journeys and numerous intermediaries.
” We are a country that I lovingly call “Contrabandistan”. “, this now adds the independent consultant,” That is to say, we are the hole through which a fairly large and, I would say, multi-billion dollar commodity enters from various countries. But the end customer is Russia. Purchases here in Kyrgyzstan can be made directly through channels established by Russian buyers. I think everyone understands that by having some kind of customs clearance officially through the internal market, you remove any additional responsibility of where it’s going to go, how it’s going to go.
»Sitting in a comfortable and elegant armchair of a cafe in the center of the capital, Kubat Rakhimov – who is also a member of the Valdai Club, an organization created by the Kremlin – in any case, leaders on the field of logistics and its mysterious performance, sharp words: ” Leaders of Kyrgyzstan’s logistics companies criticize the actions of Putin and the Kremlin in every possible way, saying that Russia is aggressive, and at the same time has no problem making big money on the supply of products to Russia, helping it avoid sanctions. »
The phenomenon has long been observed by Western countries and special envoys regularly travel to these countries to enforce sanctions. The European Union does not have a policy of applying secondary sanctions. ” We are also limited in what we can do », refers to a European diplomat stationed in Moscow. But the United States is starting to use this measure more and more often to enforce an arsenal of sanctions.
“I do not rule out the risk of secondary sanctions against the entire banking system or the country as a whole, starts again Kubat Rakhimov, But it is unlikely. You would have to have very serious evidence for this, and this is an option I reject. » The authorities are more cautious on this subject.
In a tweet dated November 28, 2023, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), recommended imposing secondary sanctions on Kyrgyzstan, writing: “ One way to stop the flow of Western goods to Russia through Central Asia is to make an example of one country and use secondary sanctions. Kyrgyzstan is the perfect test. It is small, of no systemic importance, and very clearly facilitates the diversion of trade to Russia. »
In response, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Adil Baisalov, declared that ” It doesn’t take a genius to understand that the development of the Kyrgyz economy is real. Not everything is what you think. We have made significant administrative improvements by practicing good governance (ie we don’t steal). »
Meanwhile, official statistics on the country’s imports and exports before 2022 have disappeared from the official website. There are other general data that confirm the particularly surprising economic performance of the last two years. Economist Azmat Akinfeev explains: “ Our last two years have historically been the most successful from a financial standpoint. We have around 9% GDP growth in 2022. In 2023, it is about 7%. So these are big numbers. Their budgetary income has doubled. All sectors of our economy are growing very fast, especially the financial sector.
: Its net profit was more than five times. No one expected it. »GDP per capita increased by 80% in two years. But not without benefiting everyone. Many poor Kyrgyz still go to work in Russia.
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