How Germany is failing its energy transition

Gundremingen Nuclear Power Plant in Germany / Image: Getty.

The German energy transition policy, called “Energiewende”, aims to phase out nuclear power by 2050 and achieve a 100% renewable electricity rate. To achieve this, Germany has made choices that have not all been successful. Proven winners. What if our neighbors across the Rhine fail in their energy transition?

Powered by coal and nuclear power until the early 2000s, the German electricity mix has since gradually changed. l’Energiewende, Literally translated as “energy transition”, it gives a new dimension to its electricity mix to achieve completely renewable electricity by 2050. For this, several options have been adopted.

Abandoning nuclear power, a choice made by the population in Germany

First, the decision was made to abandon nuclear power. Indeed, the German population had been culturally anti-nuclear since the early 1970s, before strengthening the movement following the Chernobyl and then Fukushima accidents, which prompted public authorities to declare the end of nuclear power. The Fukushima disaster also condemned nuclear power throughout the Rhine.

Thus, the last three power plants still operating in the region were disconnected from the network in April 2023. Given the difficult energy context with soaring energy prices and gas supply tensions, we may wonder if the timetable was good. Ukraine. Also, let us remember that nuclear energy is a source of carbon-free electricity generation that can impact the achievement of the country’s objectives.

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Gas, the privileged partner for the German energy transition

To achieve its ambition of 100% renewable electricity, our neighbors across the Rhine must rely on a flexible generation source, the output of which is necessary to support highly fluctuating renewable energy. These flexible generation sources are fuel oil, gas, coal, in some cases hydroelectricity and nuclear. Nuclear power has been taken out of the equation by political choice and hydroelectric potential is low, so Germany is left with coal and gas, the fossil fuels.

In fact, the country currently uses coal, gas and interconnections (imports/exports from its neighboring countries) to compensate for variations in wind and solar power. Germany is a producer of coal and particularly of lignite, a type of coal with a low calorific value. On the gas side, the country was heavily dependent on imports from Russia. The geopolitical situation therefore disrupted gas supplies, prompting the Germans to find solutions: importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries and importing natural gas from Norway. Relying on natural gas for its energy transition while being highly dependent on Russia for its supplies was a risky bet for Germany, which found itself in trouble and had to find solutions to the crisis with the war in Ukraine.

In terms of climate, gas and coal emit CO₂. This explains, despite the development of Renewable Energy (ENR) in the country which has made it possible to reduce CO emissions.₂ 10% in 2023, this emission level is nevertheless very high in Germany (673 million tons in 2023).

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Hydrogen to decarbonize energy production

Germany also made an uncertain technological choice by choosing to develop hydrogen as part of its Energiewende. We are talking about green hydrogen here, so generated from water electrolysis and 100% renewable electricity. Germany is banking on this source of production to decarbonize its industry as well as the heavy mobility sector. The country has set a target of achieving a generation capacity of at least 10 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. To achieve this, more than 1,800 km of hydrogen pipelines must be installed by 2030, benefiting from financial support from the state as part of this project. European Program for Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPIEC).

But, in addition to the significant energy losses generated by the production, transport and consumption of hydrogen, Germany will not be able to produce enough to cover its consumption. So it is planned to import 70% of its requirement. Several agreements have been signed with countries like Canada, United Arab Emirates, Australia and Norway. In practice, green hydrogen may not live up to Germany’s expectations. For example, after launching the hydrogen train with much fanfare, our neighbors finally reviewed their strategy to decarbonize the rail sector. In fact, hydrogen trains proved to be economically unprofitable, prompting the country to abandon them in favor of battery trains.

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Germany, somewhat alone in its defense of fossil fuels

In addition, Germany defends synthetic fuels to the point of having a strong influence in the balance of European negotiations to continue the sale of new thermal cars after 2035, on the condition that they run on this type of fuel. Outspoken defenders of e-fuels and opposition to all-electric vehicles, the Germans thought they would bring together several states around synthetic fuels to encourage them to build production factories.

But our neighbors are struggling to persuade and only three countries have signed the joint declaration drafted by Germany: the Czech Republic, Japan and Morocco. So it seems that to date, Germany is quite different in its defense of synthetic fuels. In conclusion, Germany has made radical choices for its energy transition that may prove somewhat risky given the economic situation, especially due to the abandonment of nuclear and the importance of natural gas. Future will tell us if these choices were appropriate to achieve his objectives.