French growth reaches 0.9% in 2023 – Liberation

Fourth Half A steady but positive year. Although it stalled at the end of 2023, French GDP grew by 0.9% throughout the year, after 2.5% in 2022, INSEE announced this Tuesday morning, January 30.

Annual growth is thus close to the 1% forecast that the government had maintained, thanks to a strong second quarter at 0.7%, improved by 0.1 points. Growth was zero in the other three quarters, with the National Statistics Institute on Tuesday reporting a 0.1 point improvement in the third quarter, from -0.1% previously reported.

“The global environment, and therefore the external demand addressed to France, was better than had been feared”, explained Bank of France chief economist Olivier Garnier to the National Assembly in mid-January. He also highlighted on taming inflation “A little faster than expected”Even though annual average prices increased by 5.2% in 2022 then again by 4.9% in 2023, but with a fairly marked slowdown at the end of the year.

Results that may still be evolving

Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING, speculated in recent days that the provisional result announced on Tuesday could be revised next week, when detailed results will be published. She noted in fact that business surveys, especially in businesses, would “All over the place now” And do not allow us to get an accurate idea of ​​the actual activity. France can still console itself by comparing itself to Germany for which economists predict two consecutive years of recession in 2023 and 2024.

There is a significant gap again this year between economists’ estimates and the 1.4% growth that the government has yet to officially release. But due to the growth rate of 0.1% achieved for the whole of 2023, according to INSEE, achieving such a level in 2024 looks increasingly difficult.

In an interview with Tribune Sunday This weekend, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhou forecast French growth of around 0.9% through 2024, with household consumption recovering. The appetite for big purchases increased sharply during the recent INSEE survey on household morale. Household consumption, which accounts for more than half of gross domestic product, will thus replace foreign trade as the engine of growth this year. “It’s a more regular and safer engine”The Governor was welcomed.

With the state deficit already down by two billion euros at the end of 2023, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire will have a lot to do to limit the public deficit to 4.4% of GDP this year if growth does not materialize, or if social demands are followed by fiscal relief. The waiver of the increase in tax on non-road diesel (GNR) for farmers, announced by Prime Minister Gabriel Atal on Friday, and which in turn is sought by the building, should be neutral to the budget.

Bruno Le Maire had in fact promised that the state “He won’t put a euro in his pocket” With this amendment, and will dedicate the entire savings made “greenery” of these fields. So it is the ecological transition that can pay the price.