Four things to keep in mind in the South Carolina Republican primary

(CNN) — Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign has been looking ahead for weeks to the Republican primaries in her home state of South Carolina, where she was twice elected governor. After losing to former President Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and the US Virgin Islands, Haley’s bid for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination is on the brink.

And this Saturday, South Carolina looks poised to push it closer to (and possibly over) the limit.

Trump has led every poll in South Carolina, before and after Haley emerged as his latest obstacle to his third consecutive Republican presidential nomination. Nearly all of the state’s top Republican Party elected officials support Trump, and visual evidence — especially when it comes to crowd sizes at campaign rallies — suggests a landslide victory is on the horizon.

Haley’s team is under no illusions about the task at hand.

“We know the difference. We know what’s at stake,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney told reporters Friday. “With our eyes wide open, we’ll receive the arrow, but we’re focused on the fight ahead.”
Haley insists that regardless of the outcome, he will continue until Super Tuesday in March and potentially beyond. Earlier this week, he told his followers — and others who questioned his staying power — that he was pushing.

“South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday I’ll still be running for president,” Haley said. “I’m not going anywhere”.

The Trump campaign, for its part, isn’t too concerned about preparing an exit route for Haley.

In a memo released with Haley pledging to survive the fight, Trump’s team declared that “the end is nigh for Nikki Haley,” rendering her — in predictably Trumpian parlance — a “loser bent on an alternate reality and refusing to reach its imminence.” “

There is no doubt, of course, that Haley is a loser. But on the other hand, it means Trump’s defeat on one of his strongest stomping grounds in the country will boost expectations — and predictions — and give Haley a boost in fundraising ahead of the elections. Super Tuesday Contests.

Here are four things to keep in mind in South Carolina:

Can Trump deliver a knockout blow?

Barring a major upset, most of the primary debate will turn to Trump’s margin of victory late Saturday evening. The question is: Is there anything that might make Haley reconsider her stated plans?

Haley and her campaign have repeatedly rejected any suggestion that she might end her candidacy before next month, but she wouldn’t be the first candidate to change her mind when faced with ugly numbers.

Republican Rep. Haley’s home district is represented. Nancy Mays has endorsed Trump. That’s despite his past association with Haley, who endorsed Mays in a television ad in 2022, when the congresswoman faces a tough primary. So while he’s not a neutral voice here, Mason does have some insight into the electorate. His prediction (in an interview published Friday in Politico) is that Trump will “win by a big margin. I’m going to say somewhere around 25-28 (points).”

Haley’s team has mostly refused to make predictions, not about the outcome and certainly not about what kind of damage it may or may not overcome. The operation seems set to continue at least until March, with campaign money to do so.

But there are other considerations. Trump mocked and belittled his rival throughout, even joking about the absence of Nicki’s husband of 26 years, Michael Haley, currently in the North Carolina National Guard. South is on deployment abroad for a year.

Haley told CNN’s Jack Tapper earlier this month: “If you don’t respect our military, how can we think you will respect them?” Respect if it comes time for war?

It’s the kind of rude remark from Trump that could fuel continued campaigning in South Carolina, regardless of the outcome.

Hailey’s road to victory?

Most South Carolina politicians don’t believe it exists. And for good reason.

Much of what made Haley a national political figure — her call as governor to remove the Confederate battle flag from the House grounds — is distaste for the conservative base of the state’s Republican Party. She is at odds with almost every state party leader. Meanwhile, Trump has dominated there. South Carolina was the only East Coast state to win by double digits in the 2020 general election.
That being said, there are some small glimmers of hope for it.

South Carolina’s primaries are open, meaning Democrats and independents can vote in Republican races. It is voters, along with more traditional conservatives, who form the (theoretical) Haley coalition. And they will know heading into Saturday that anything less than a strong performance from Haley could mean the end.

New Hampshire offered equal opportunity in terms of voting rules, and yet Trump still won the Republican primary by 11 points, with 54% of the vote. Haley’s 43%, along with the votes cast for other non-Trump candidates on the ballot, would not have been enough to change the outcome.

But that, in terms of the campaign, was a while ago. Haley hopes the life-or-death nature of this moment inspires the anti-Trump furor of late. That could expand to other states with open primaries, such as Michigan next week and Texas and Virginia on Super Tuesday.

Can Trump expand his base?

A former president doesn’t need to open a big tent to win in South Carolina. But one of the main concerns facing his campaign — which Haley highlighted in the South Carolina run — is his poor showing among independents, which was evident in New Hampshire.

According to CNN exit polls, among Granite State independents eligible to vote in the GOP primary, Haley led Trump 58% to 39%, a significant margin considering the overall primary vote was won by 10 points, largely driven by older voters in suburban and rural areas. is coming. . And, of course, registered Republicans, of whom Trump won 74% to 25%.

But since independents are also allowed to vote in the South Carolina race, we can get an idea of ​​whether Trump has done anything for his cause among these potential swing voters in the general election.

Of particular interest, writes CNN’s Harry Enten, are Charleston and Richland counties, the only two that Trump did not win during the 2016 Republican primaries. Home to two of the state’s urban centers, the loss there would hardly spell doom for the former president, but it could be a preview of trouble ahead, and a sign that Trump has yet to bring the entire Republican Party under his control.

It would also give Haley new ammunition for her argument that Trump is exceptionally unfit to retake the White House later this year.

Calculus of Representatives

Despite all the speculative arguments and expectations, there is still only one solid measure of success: reps. The final nominee will need 1,215 of them.

Trump currently leads Haley, 63 to 17. There’s obviously a way, and with 50 in South Carolina, Haley could theoretically take the lead. However, it is more likely to be completely excluded. South Carolina awards its 29 representatives to statewide winners and leaders in each of three congressional districts.

Although it’s still early in the primary calendar, it’s getting late for Halley. There will be more than 850 delegates on offer during Super Tuesday, March 5, when states like California and Texas vote. It is about 35% of the total representatives.

Haley, then, will be desperate to avoid bad news from grabbing headlines in his home state, if only for the potential to discourage potential supporters ahead of a mathematically more important race.

CNN’s Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.