Donald Trump 2.0: US foreign policy scenarios if the Republican returns to the presidency | USA election

In 1997, a man who was all about foreign policy, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser of the United States, wrote a classic of geopolitics in retirement, The Grand Chessboard (“The Great Board”). In it he argued that, to remain a world leader, the United States had to do only three things: strengthen its ties with Europe through NATO; It preserves its military bases in Asia to contain China, and prevent any “dependent entities” such as Beijing or Moscow from gaining influence in key regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.

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In 1997, a man who was all about foreign policy, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser of the United States, wrote a classic of geopolitics in retirement, The Grand Chessboard (“The Great Board”). In it he argued that, to remain a world leader, the United States had to do only three things: strengthen its ties with Europe through NATO; It preserves its military bases in Asia to contain China, and prevent any “dependent entities” such as Beijing or Moscow from gaining influence in key regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.

The presidential elections in the United States on November 5, which will once again face President Joe Biden and the Republican candidate Donald Trump, appear at first glance as a huge dilemma: Democrats offer to follow Brzezinski’s recipe in the letter. Republicans promise to blow it up.

The two candidates could not be more different on foreign policy. Two images are illustrative this week: On Thursday, Biden greeted Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristerson, hours after the country joined the Atlantic alliance at a ceremony in Washington. On Friday, Trump welcomed Hungary’s prime minister, far-right Viktor Orban, whose government took a year to say yes to Stockholm’s entry into NATO, at his Mar-a-Lago mansion.

Biden, who has decades of international experience and relationships with other leaders, boasts a commitment to NATO, has strengthened or created new alliances in Asia and is pushing for more military aid to Ukraine. Despite supporting Israel in the Gaza war, he advocates a two-state solution, Palestinian and Israeli.

Trump is not particularly interested in international politics, but he has turned it upside down during his tenure. He scrapped international agreements on climate change, troop deployment, trade and nuclear weapons. He approached autocrats like Russia’s Vladimir Putin or North Korea’s Kim Jong-un — “We’ve fallen in love,” he once said of the latter — while attacking the leaders of allies like Germany or the United Kingdom. It also imposed an entry veto on citizens of Arab countries; Threats to withdraw US bases from South Korea; and described Haiti and El Salvador as “shitholes”.

Although the magnate has not made foreign policy comments on the campaign, when he has done so he has delivered shock after shock. Three weeks ago, he threatened that, if he returned to the White House, he would end NATO’s raison d’être — the principle of mutual defense — and allow the same Russia that invaded Ukraine to “do whatever it wants.” gives.” ” with members not investing at least 2% of their GDP in defence. He also indicated that he would convert foreign aid into loans only. Earlier, he assured that he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours”.

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It’s details that have raised alarm bells among Washington’s European and Asian partners over the prospect of Trump’s return to the White House. Although eight months until an election is a long time in politics and everything can change; Recent polls favor Republicans. That prospect, which worries allies, on the other hand, fills other governments from Israel to Moscow with glee.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House would represent a 180-degree shift in terms of the multilateralism that Biden defends, says Grant Davis Reiher, director of Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. “(There will be) an emphasis on bilateral rather than multilateral relations, and a general decline in American participation in international affairs,” the expert explained via email. Among other things, Trump has already assured that he will once again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement against climate change.

“If his first four years were bad, the next four will be worse,” says John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser and now one of his loudest critics, in a new foreword to his memoir. The room where it happened (The room where it happened).

According to Bolton, Trump will surround himself with a team that is characterized less by its preparedness than its total obedience to the president. This conservative hawk charged that, by not being able to run for a third term, Magnet would not be distracted by the need to please voters and could cause irreparable damage to the United States and its allies.

“It will be a very close contest between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as to who will be most happy to see Trump back in office,” Bolton quips.

The world under Trump 2.0, judging from his statements, expert analysis and comments from those who know him, might look something like this:

Europe and the Ukrainian War

“We may see a withdrawal of support for Ukraine, although it’s also possible that, once Trump returns to the White House, he will look at the problem differently,” Rieher says. The former president has said of the conflict: “The best thing the United States should do is make peace, bring Russia and Ukraine together and make peace.”

In this academic opinion, Trump’s re-election “will do nothing but harm relations with our European allies.” “While it is true that European nations were not contributing to NATO at the level they were, the damage caused by the former president’s attitude is quite real,” Reiher notes. It is hard to imagine, he believes, that dignitaries could “seriously consider leaving NATO, or failing to fulfill commitments to protect alliance countries – whether or not they have ‘paid’ their part”. commented on, so we have to take it seriously.

In another term, he would have started a trade war with European automakers. Trump has proposed 10% tariffs on all imports and raises the possibility of further increases on Chinese products, which he has already imposed a heavy tax burden on during his tenure.

Giants of Asia and China

If re-elected, Trump will likely take a more aggressive stance towards China on the trade front: he has also mentioned tariffs of more than 60%, which would cause a new slowdown in relations between the two.

The big unknown is what his position will be towards Taiwan. In the past, he has made statements indicating he is unwilling to defend the island — Bolton recounts a moment in the Oval Office in which Trump compared the island to his fountain pen and China to his office desk. Reiher believes that a hypothetical invasion by China would trigger a “significant international crisis,” and that both Democratic and Republican administrations would “do everything possible to avoid it.” The analyst continued, “Trump has made it clear that he does not like the Chinese leadership, contrary to his gestures towards Putin.”

The former US president could renew pressure on South Korea and, as he did in his first term, threaten to withdraw troops protecting it unless Seoul bears a greater share of the costs. And it remains to be seen whether he will renew his failed nuclear talks with North Korea.

Middle East and Gaza

Trump has not made any major statement regarding the Gaza war. But during his tenure he ordered the relocation of the American embassy to Jerusalem and maintained a permissive policy toward extremist Jewish settlers. Israel’s national security minister, the far-right Itamar Ben-Gavir, recently declared that Biden does not “absolutely” support Israel. “If Trump were in charge, the behavior of the United States would be completely different,” Ben-Gavir said.

Progressive Democratic and Arab American community groups have launched primary campaigns to withdraw their support for Biden and pressure him to change his pro-Israel position on the war to accept a permanent ceasefire. But, Reiher warns, if he does return to the White House, “Trump will be less aligned with those desires, and that’s one of the ironies of the situation”.

Latin America

In all likelihood, the former president, whose influence among Republicans overturned, was agreed in January after four months of grueling negotiations by both sides, and who promised to build a wall along the southern border of the United States in his first term. “More pressure on Mexico and Latin America to stem the flow of migrants at the US-Mexico border,” Rieher thinks.

Argentina’s president, the ultra-liberal Javier Milli, can expect a closer relationship. The real estate magnate has spoken glowingly of him and promised to visit Argentina. Instead, hostilities toward Cuba would resume. During his tenure, Trump completed the relationship toward the island begun during the era of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

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