Declines in sight in Europe ahead of series of indicators – 03/11/2024 at 09:10

By Claude Chandjo

Major European stock markets are expected to fall on Monday, with investors likely to continue to shy away from riskier assets amid uncertainty amid mixed US jobs data and the absence of a catalyst for today’s session when a series of indicators will be released from Tuesday.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should lose 0.32% at the opening. The DEX in Frankfurt could drop 0.56%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to drop 0.40%. The Eurostox 50 index is expected to fall 0.72%.

There are no leading indicators on today’s agenda and the monthly employment report in the United States, released on Friday, should continue to set the trend. It showed the jobless rate rose to 3.9% in February and wage growth slowed to 0.1% in a month, but job creation accelerated to 275,000, leading to a volatile session in Europe and New York.

Next week, investors will mainly watch data on price developments in several euro zone countries, the United Kingdom and the United States, mainly from Tuesday, when central bankers have recently opened the way to easing their monetary policy.

According to sources, some European Central Bank (ECB) officials are informally requesting interest rate cuts in June and July.

In the United States, Goldman Sachs suggested in a note that a weak jobs report increased the likelihood of a rate cut in May, although June remains the most likely timetable.

Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange was down after hitting a record high on Friday, following the release of a particularly mixed report on US employment.

The Dow Jones index closed at 38,722.69 points down 0.18% or -68.66 points. The Broader Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down -33.67 points, or 0.65%, at 5,123.69. The Nasdaq Composite fell -188.26 points (1.16%) to 16,085.113.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly hit record highs before falling late in the morning in New York.

After climbing 5% and hitting a new record, artificial intelligence champion Nvidia fell, dragging the sector in its wake.

The gap widened 4.5% after better-than-expected quarterly results.

in Asia

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell 2.19% to 38,820.49 points after hitting a series record last week. The broader Topix closed down 2.2% at 2,666.83 points.

Japanese indexes fell, led by American technology stocks and a stronger yen, with semiconductor groups such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest falling 3.15% and 4.78%, respectively.

In terms of indicators, Japan’s economy avoided a technical recession with gross domestic product (GDP) growing 0.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared with a contraction of 0.4% in the first estimate.

The MSCI index, which combines shares in Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan), fell 0.16% on Friday after hitting an eight-month high.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite advanced 0.74% and the CSI 300 gained 1.25%, responding well to a 0.7% annual rebound in consumer prices in February as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with weak demand, a real crisis in the estate sector and skyrocketing municipal debt. .

Values ​​to follow in Europe:

changes

The yen (+0.09%) is trading at 146.94 per dollar, as Reuters reported that a growing number of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials are in favor of ending interest rates. Negative interest annualized wage negotiations this month due to forecasts of large wage increases.

The dollar edged up slightly against a basket of benchmark currencies, up 0.03% but remained close to its January 15 low, which hit 102.33 points on Friday.

The euro settled at $1.094 (+0.03%) after rising 0.9% to $1.0980 last week.

The pound sterling is trading at $1.2844 (-0.1%).

Bitcoin, which hit a record high of $70,709.75 on Friday, reached $70,542 on Monday (+3.1%).

rate

Yields on Portuguese ten-year bonds reacted less to the results of early legislative elections in which the centre-right narrowly won over the Socialists, while the far-right Chega group made gains.

The risk premium with the ten-year German rate remains around 66 basis points, the lowest in two years.

The ten-year German bund yield is steady at 2.269%.

U.S. Treasury bills of the same maturity fell nearly two basis points to 4.073%, from a one-month low of 4.038% on Friday.

Oil

The oil market extended its losses from last week on worries about slowing demand in China, although geopolitical risks linked to the Middle East and Russia limited declines.

Brent fell 0.23% to $81.89 a barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) fell 0.32% to $77.76.

There are no key economic indicators on the agenda for March 11

(Writing by Claude Chandjo, Editing by Blandyn Henault)