Debt, Deficit: Who Will Pay? In the replay

On the economic front, bad news is piling up. After announcing a deficit of 5.5% for the year 2023, ratings agency Moody’s considers it “unlikely” that France will meet its objective of reducing the deficit by 2027. But who will pay the bill? The most obvious way is unemployment insurance. Gabriel Attal confirmed on TF1 news on Wednesday evening that he intends to introduce a new amendment to unemployment insurance to cover the state deficit, which has been confirmed by INSEE at 5.5% of GDP in 2023. So three roads are being constructed. Studied: Reduction of the compensation period, currently eighteen months, reviewing the period of work entitling to compensation and reducing the level of compensation. So this will be the third such amendment after 2019, but what does it matter to a government that still hopes to keep its promise of not raising taxes on the middle classes. For their part, the workers’ unions do not intend to let this happen: “It is out of the question for us to consider a further reduction in unemployment compensation for one euro”, warns CGT member Denis Gravoile in Le Monde. Meanwhile, the debate on superprofits continues. When questioned on the subject on television, Gabriel Attal declared that “he never had any disagreement on the subject”. Enough to immediately react to the boss of Total, Patrick Pouane, who rejected the idea of ​​additional taxes for his group: “TotalEnergy’s profits in France are not superprofits (…) TotalEnergy overpaid 23 billion euros abroad last year. .

As we have come to understand, the topic of unemployment insurance should animate discussions until next fall. For the prime minister, “there should be more French people working because this is additional income” for the state. On the front line, seniors who have already seen their payback period reduced from 36 to 27 months last February. In 2022, 1.5 million jobseekers were over 50, or a quarter of those registered with Pôle Employe. Often perceived by employers as too expensive and less polite than younger people, their age is a real barrier to returning to work. “Furthermore, Renaissance MP Astrid Panoyson-Bouvet explains in an article in Le Monde, France is the country, along with Portugal, that taxes seniors’ employment compensation the highest in relation to income from inactivity” . As a result, the average duration of enrollment in this age group is twice as long as the others. So for some, it’s a matter of getting by by doing odd jobs while waiting for retirement. The government wants to solve this by signing a “new deal for life at work”. But in a sign of the complexity of the issue, talks between unions and employers have been extended to April 8.

However, it is not only the unemployed who will be called upon to address the deficit. With 10 billion euros in state spending already targeted by the first savings plan, local authorities are at risk of contributing once again. “We are all in the same boat,” warned Gabriel Attal. Local public administrations in particular show, according to INSEE, a deficit of 8.9 billion euros in 2022. In a press release, general budget rapporteur Jean-Ren Cazeneuve (Renaissance) called for “every item to be questioned, including public expenditure. The expenditure of local authorities”. On the other hand, many political heavyweights are preparing their defence, arguing that local The authorities’ debt represents only 9% of the public debt: “Local authorities do not have to cover the state’s deficit”, so said President Carol Delga. Occitanie Region (PS). Facing the warnings of the senators, Gabriel Etal ensures that the government will receive the associations of elected officials on the subject on April 9.

What ways can the government find to save money? Why is senior unemployment especially a major concern? And how do we avoid the rebellion of elected officials by including local authorities?

We’ll talk about it in #cdanslair at 5:45pm on France 5. Find tonight’s expert presentation on our site. You can now ask us your questions in the comments!

Our experts:

• Thomas Porcher – Economist, member of the “Eterus Economists”.
• Gael Slimane – President and co-founder of Odoxa Polling Institute
• Richard Varley – journalist, Paris correspondent for Swiss media blick.fr
• Sandra Hoibien – General Director of CRÉDOC