It becomes a habit. Bruno Le Maire will once again be the bearer of bad news, a month after he appeared on TF1’s 20 hours on Sunday to announce an increase in electricity prices. This evening, the finance minister will announce the new growth rate for France in 2024. Expected at 1.4%, it should be revised downwards (around 1%). He will present the results to the French: savings of 20 billion euros in two years. On February 10, during a government seminar in Matignon, Bruno Le Maire made a lengthy presentation so that all his colleagues were well aware of these bleak economic prospects.
Less growth, less revenue for the state
At the end of the year there was less growth than expected. The same was true of state revenue. Deficits calculated at 4.9% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024 will not be maintained. A savings plan will be needed, when at the end of spring the rating agencies will look again at the French case… All this Bercy’s tenant will now explain to the French. According to the Ipsos-La Tribune Sunday Barometer, they are highly aware that the economic situation will worsen (84%). Paradoxically, although 78% of them expect debt deterioration, they do not prioritize it.
This week, Bruno Le Maire saw Gabriel Ettel three times to prepare his ad. He offered him drastic solutions. For the moment, between the two men, it was decided that it would be the economy minister who would be next in line.
“This Sunday, it will be the first ax; It is not impossible that there are others,” fears a deputy.
There is no collective budget
Within the Executive, two main principles have been agreed upon. First, there will be no tax increase; The rule set by Emmanuel Macron in 2017 will be maintained. Then, no collective budget will be announced for this spring. This would have left itself very open to the risk of a motion of censure being adopted by the opposition, who would not have been able to resist it before the European elections. During a government seminar, Gerald Darmanin was particularly alert to this issue.
For future savings, regulatory process will be favored. But, within the government, some fear the prospect of an Olympics will lead to unexpected costs. Bonuses given to police officers deprived of vacation during this period will officially cost around 800 million euros. In the Ministry of Civil Services, it has already been calculated that the billion should eventually be crossed.