“Benyamin Netanyahu is banking on a change of presidency in the United States”.

Published on: 01/23/2024 – 00:36

4 minutes

RFI: Since the start of the Gaza war, Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained a certain ambiguity about the future he envisions for the Palestinian enclave. Is this a clarification of their position?

Dennis Charbit: Undoubtedly. Netanyahu may already be putting himself on the campaign trail. He wants to be seen as the only person capable of opposing the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. He rides on the climate that rules his country today, which is highly suspicious of anything resembling a peace process. Because the divide has widened since October 7, Netanyahu believes he must present himself as the only person who can resist international pressure. And so he is at odds with the American administration, which, for its part, advocates a political solution.

But in Israel, this expression appears premature at best. For the entire right and the far right, October 7 is somehow the nail in the coffin of any peace process. But the scale of the carnage and the methods of mass slaughter prevent any Israeli from thinking that peace is possible and imminent. And in the best case scenario, some believe it is necessary to go through a long period of transition, to find intermediate stages that in the long run cannot exclude the creation of a Palestinian state, Palestinian sovereignty. But this cannot be done without Palestinian leadership, which is currently completely absent.

Washington on Thursday, London this weekend, Brussels this Monday: Israel’s allies voiced their disapproval after Benjamin Netanyahu’s comments. Can Israel afford this diplomatic isolation?

This break was predictable. Initially, the European Union and the American administration supported Israel’s retaliation because the first shot was fired by Hamas. But what they would like is to eliminate Hamas quickly with as few civilian casualties as possible. And the gap between theoretical support for Israel’s operations, the absence of prospects even from a peace process in the long term, and the political will on the Israeli side is widening. This explains to some extent the firm position taken. And as long as Netanyahu is on a virtual election campaign, with this kind of exchange, the clash, the differences will only get worse.

But all these statements relate only to the Israel-Palestine conflict. In this context, I understand very well the impatience of the Europeans, who want this major crisis to open a window of opportunity to restart the peace process. But if we put them in a regional context – Hezbollah in the north, the Houthis in the south and the Iranians in the east – I think that there, for once, the Europeans are in phase with the Israeli government and more precisely with the state. Israel and the Israelis. The whole problem is that they have Netanyahu as a partner and he is a kind of snake that is a bit hard to swallow. Since he has been in power he has continued to frustrate regional, European and American ambitions.

Are Israel’s allies banking on a post-Netanyahu era?

I think that in the European Union, as in the American administration, we are almost certain that the Netanyahu era is over. He is politically incapable of assuming another day. October 7 was a very real and real setback for the Israelis, who have been stable ever since. But there will come a time when politics will regain its rights. And the two Union Ministers of the War Cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, indeed have a responsibility and perhaps a historic role to find a middle way to be more attentive to the European Union by listening to Israeli opinion.

But Benjamin Netanyahu also depends on the change of president in the United States. And that is the complexity of the current situation. He realizes that he still has ten months. And it is not excluded that the war will last for a while to get closer to the election calendar, he can hope that Donald Trump will win. And at that point, the scaffolding we’re building will become a house of cards that will crumble. It goes without saying that Trump should not be surprised and is likely to support Netanyahu. So the entire challenge for the Prime Minister is to hold elections ten months before they are called.

aliveA Western strike has reportedly been launched against the Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa