Belgium must prepare for the worst for its economy by 2025

In Belgium, despite stable economic growth, the Federal Planning Bureau declares that according to its economic projections for the period 2025-2029, the public deficit is increasing. Signals suggest that Belgium is at risk of falling behind the euro zone average from next year.

Belgium’s economic growth recorded a significant increase, reaching 1.5% in 2023 and expected to be 1.4% in 2024. This is due to household consumption and business investments. The planning bureau underlines this significant progress compared to the lower figures for the euro zone: “significant progress compared to the euro zone (0.5% and 0.9%), deciphers the planning bureau.

However, forecasts indicate economic growth of between 1.3% and 1.4% annually from 2025 to 2029, slightly below the euro zone average. At the same time, national employment will increase by 253,000 people during this period, pushing the employment rate to 74.3% by 2029.

You should also know that the Planning Office warns that the public deficit will continue to deteriorate without implementing budgetary consolidation measures. In 2024, it is projected to be 4.6% of GDP. In the absence of policy changes, the deficit will gradually increase to 5.6% in 2029, mainly due to increased spending on pensions and health care, as well as rising interest payments. As a result, public debt will increase from 106% of GDP in 2024 to 117% in 2029.

Inflation: Will Belgium follow the same path next year as in 2023?

For the record, Belgium recorded a significant slowdown in price increases in 2023. According to the annual report of Price Observatory of FPS Economy, inflation was only 2.3%. Indeed, compared to its neighbours, Belgium has recorded a significant decline in headline inflation. This decline can be explained mainly by the decline in energy prices, which helped create a certain balance. Indeed, prices of food products continued to rise while energy prices fell by 28.4%. In France, inflation saw some stabilization in 2023, while Germany and the Netherlands saw clear declines. According to the Planning Office, inflation will cross the 2% threshold next year, indicating very difficult times for Belgians if no budgetary measures are taken by then.