Australian Submarines: Certainties with France and Naval Group… Big Ambiguity “Aukus”

Two and a half years after breaking the 55 billion euro contract without warning To buy 12 conventionally powered submarines Within the Naval Group, Australia has been caught in the Okus alliance with the United States and Great Britain, which have been slow to provide a clear and precise horizon for its ability to equip it with nuclear submarines. Explained by the latest twists and turns.

1. Later

It is not surprising. By denouncing the agreement with France in 2021, Australia must come to terms And don’t be too hasty.

The Aukus agreement should make it possible to achieve that Construction of at least five nuclear powered submarines For the Australian Navy.

The first will be built in Great Britain while the following will be built at the Adelaide shipyards in South Australia. However, the first building can only be delivered “in the early 2040s”.

We are clearly far from the goals envisaged during the partnership with the Naval Group. For its twelve shortfin barracudas, the French manufacturer promised first entry into service in 2030.

The last unit will leave the shipyards in 2050 and sail by 2085. Even if a change in propulsion requires extending the schedule, these late deliveries will not fail to create difficulties. The Australian fleet is increasingly agingIn the midst of China’s military expansion in the Asia-Pacific.

2. More expensive

An agreement between France and Australia to buy 12 conventionally operated submarines was described at the time as the “deal of the century”. The jackpot amount was 55 billion euros.

With the Okus engagement between the United States, Great Britain and Australia, we are clearly changing the register, while the agreement with the Naval Group was then decided…” pharaonic “

The project can, in fact, cost Up to $240 billion over 30 years. Of course, this envelope is not only devoted to the construction of submarines, but many voices are being raised to condemn such expenditure, especially in Australia.

Australians have already had to pull out their wallets. Thursday March 21, 2024, Canberra Thus announced to build Partnership with British BAE Systems for building its future nuclear-powered submarines. A welcome agreement to progress the program but one that is not without compensation.

In fact, Australia is preparing to sign A check for 4.6 billion Australian dollars (€2.8 billion) to support British industry and ensure its new fleet arrives on time.

Another huge ” Payment » Then in favor of the United States to whom he would transfer $3 billion (A$4.5 billion) to support the bloodless industrial base as well.

3. More ambiguous

Gray areas continue with the Aukus project. Besides the financial question, A logistical problem Risk of poisoning later.

quid, indeed, Which of the three Virginia-class ships to be delivered to Australia by the United States in 2030 will act as a buffer while awaiting future nuclear submarines?

This plan is in trouble. Recent votes by the US Congress and estimates by the US Navy do not really point in this direction.

Instead of ordering two Virginia-type SNAs (nuclear attack submarines) every year since 2011, The US Navy has decided to slow down and to acquire only one during the 2025 fiscal year.

The reason? A struggling naval industry is unable to meet demand, as ” Shortage of qualified workers and problems in the supply chain. Suffice it to say that the Virginias hoped for by Canberra are not going to cross the Pacific…

After all, the year 2024 can and probably will be decisive at the political level as well Nip the Aukus connection in the bud.

Some observers fear, in fact, That is not scuttled by the latter If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November 2024.

“Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States live perfectly Committed In this joint venture”, the US Secretary of Defense sought to reassure in a joint statement on Thursday March 21, 2024, Lloyd Austin, British Defense Minister, grant shapes, and its Australian counterpart, Richard Marles.

Australia finally has enough to let it happen Seventh country in the world to have nuclear submarines ?

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