Ariane 6 arrives (very) late against SpaceX, but has an ace up its sleeve

Space – This is the final stretch for the Ariane 6 rocket before its stages leave for Kourou in Guyana, where the launch base is located. In July 2023, its predecessor Ariane 5 bowed out after 27 years of service and an exceptional reliability of 98.4%. We must now make way for Ariane 6, whose inaugural flight is planned between mid-June and the end of July 2024.

The launcher arrives four years late, and the delay has not been kind to SpaceX’s best deployment. But the European rocket has solid assets to start his career.

SpaceX, a well-advanced competitor

This is a competitor that Arian did not expect. When Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, he had two goals: to design launchers capable of lowering the cost of putting them into orbit, and to develop space tourism. Even more, it wants to reuse its launchers to reduce production costs.

In 2014, when the Ariane 6 program was launched, the Europeans did not believe in reusable launchers. The technology is known, tested internally, but it is not non-reusable, neither in terms of reliability, nor in terms of price: “Our customers are not asking for it”, explained Hubert-Andre Roussel again in 2019, then of Arianegroup. Executive Chairman.

For its part, after countless tests that often ended in spectacular explosions, SpaceX achieved a feat in December 2015: its booster landed right on its target. A revolution is taking place in the aerospace sector. Elon Musk’s company, backed by American public funds, succeeded in offering a reusable, reliable launcher capable of launching at much higher rates than its competitors. The results, economies of scale and Elon Musk’s company break down the costs of putting satellites into orbit.

At the same time, ArianeGroup continues the development of Ariane 6, which is supposed to take over from Ariane 5 in 2020: in places, a careful but intelligent modernization of Ariane 5, which will allow to reduce costs without disturbing everything. Transformed manufacturing line, use of 3D printing for some critical parts, simplified design: To remain competitive, Ariane 6 will cost 40% less to produce.

But now, Covid-19 is there. Launch tests have stalled, with the rocket facing several technical problems. Delays are increasing, reaching four years today: an enormous delay, especially if we consider that the “modernized” version of Ariane 6 was planned for… 2025. It is also ArianeNext, the next launcher, that pays the price. The mission to become the first reusable Ariane-branded launcher, expected around 2030, has been postponed for several years.

28 flights are planned for Ariane 6

On paper, the baptism of summer 2024 therefore looks rather bad: a launch that comes too late, more expensive per kilo to launch than its main competitor (except for a very high-altitude launch, for example a geostationary satellite), too low. Launch rate… The market has changed, and the European space is paying the price. Unless he has a secret idea.

The order book for the launcher is full, very full. “We already have 28 missions planned even though we haven’t flown yet”Director of the Ariane 6 program, François Daneau, announced at HuffPost. And this is no coincidence.

First there are the institutional mandates: governments, the European Union want to use its in-house solutions for public satellites like the Galileo constellation. If successive launch delays force ESA to choose SpaceX for multiple launches in 2024, the next would be Ariane 6 passengers, with the first mission in early 2025.

Bezos-Musk war, good plan for Ariane

The private sector is also there: Arianespace can therefore count on Amazon. Similar to SpaceX with Starlink, Jeff Bezos’ company plans to launch its suite of satellites, called Kuiper, to provide Internet access from space. A contract that represents 18 launches for Ariane 6, and it was out of the question for Bezos to call on his main rival, Elon Musk…

Note that in addition to replacing Ariane 5, the new European rocket will also take over from Russian Soyuz rockets at the Kourou launch pad. The European Space Center has stopped using Russian launches since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

Despite its slowdown, despite its cumulative delays, the new European space bike will launch with real security, having a full order book until its cruising speed (9-10 shots per year) is achieved. During this phase that will continue through 2024 and 2025, only one real metric must be ensured, the most important to attract outside of already planned shots: the reliability of the new launcher.

See also on The HuffPost:

See also on HuffPost :